KQ turns top two vs. a 12/3/1

[GiantBuddha]

Villain is 12/3/1 over 1200 hands; Flop bet is a little small, esp. w/the flush draw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($60.40)
SB ($49.35)
BB ($38.95)
UTG ($9.50)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($40.90)
Hero ($48)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, Button calls $2, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($6.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, Button calls $4.50, SB folds.

Turn: ($15.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

[Chargers In 07]

bet/fold. He'll never raise worse here. If he doesn't raise and you make it to the river, value bet. He'd raise the flop or turn if you were beaten.

[PhOENiX_111]

bet 12, if not raised , bet river 3/4 the pot on blank card

[GiantBuddha]

What's a 12/3 calling the turn with that I beat? What's he calling the flop with that I beat?

[eMedia]

AK,KJ,AQ

[eMedia]

and a flush draw

[mehm]

I'd put villan on AA, AK, KQ, KJ, and maybe 88-QQ (depending on your stats and how well he is paying attention to your play).

If you have been LAG, make a bet that looks like a bluff but will get called by a second best hand. A pot sized bet ruins his pot odds on a flush and might get called with Kx or a pocket middle pair.

If you have been tight/passive, continue to make small value bets.

In either case, I would assume that you have the best hand and might have to pay off a set of 8s.

[GiantBuddha]

I've been playing somewhere between 15/10 and 12/9, pretty aggressive in position, although I'm c-betting less in three way pots than I used to.

In my experience, a 12/3 doesn't care that much how aggressive you are, but more whether he has a pocket pair and whether he hits his set. I think his range looks something like: AK, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 22, 88, KK. He never has KJ here. Maybe KQs rarely.

Bet/fold looks good here as I'm ahead of his range. How bad is check/call?

[ship_it_trebek]

I think c/c lets him determine how big of a pot he wants to play. He's only bloating the pot with hands you don't beat I believe. I'd rather b/f

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
I think c/c lets him determine how big of a pot he wants to play. He's only bloating the pot with hands you don't beat I believe. I'd rather b/f

[/ QUOTE ]

If c-c lets him bet better hands and check worse ones then c-f isn't a bad play, especially if he may pay off light on the river with a hand that he was folding to a 2nd barrel, putting you on a missed draw.

b/f is still a fine line, but as OP pointed out it can be hard to take this particular villain to value-town when there are so few worse made hands he will call with on two more streets.

Surf