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#3
08-19-2007, 05:38 PM
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Re: Probability of flopping 2pr?
This is correct - 2.2% - I looked it up in Super System to check...
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#4
08-19-2007, 07:17 PM
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Re: Probability of flopping 2pr?
[ QUOTE ]
This is correct - 2.2% - I looked it up in Super System to check... [/ QUOTE ] If you looked it up in Super System, then you should have caught his error in arithmetic. His formula is correct, but it comes to 99/4900 =~ 2.02%, not 99/4600 =~ 2.15%. Super System reports this correctly (original version, table XIX, AKs flops A-K and smaller card). Note that this does not include 2-pair made with a pair on the flop (like AK flops A22). If we include these, it would add another 2.02% as the probability is exactly the same for this type of 2-pair.
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#6
08-20-2007, 05:12 PM
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Re: Probability of flopping 2pr?
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you don't have a pair in your hand to start with: You will flop exactly 2 pair: (44/50*6/49*3/48)*3 = 99/4600 = 0.0215 [/ QUOTE ] What do these numbers represent? I was trying to figure this out using the poker odds calculator and subtracting out trips and full houses and came up with a different number. This appears simpler and more precise anyway, so I would like to know how to construct this type of formula for 2 pair, trips, and full house.
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#7
08-20-2007, 08:27 PM
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Re: Probability of flopping 2pr?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Assuming you don't have a pair in your hand to start with: You will flop exactly 2 pair: (44/50*6/49*3/48)*3 = 99/4600 = 0.0215 [/ QUOTE ] What do these numbers represent? I was trying to figure this out using the poker odds calculator and subtracting out trips and full houses and came up with a different number. This appears simpler and more precise anyway, so I would like to know how to construct this type of formula for 2 pair, trips, and full house. [/ QUOTE ] Suppose that we hold QJ (the calculation is the same for any non-pair). There are 3 Jacks, 3 Queens, and 44 other cards out of the 50 cards remaining. The probability that the flop comes xJQ or xQJ is the probability that the first card is one of the x other cards (44/50), times the probability that the second card is a J or Q (6/49), times the probability that the last card makes 2-pair (Q when 2nd card was J, or J when 2nd card was Q, 3/48). Then multiply all of this by 3 since the x can come in any of 3 positions. See this post and its links for more on trips, full house, etc.
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#8
08-22-2007, 12:13 PM
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Re: Probability of flopping 2pr?
Thanks for the explanation and the links. So, using J2, if I then want a subset of the 2 pair flops where my J will be the top pair, then I can take the A,K,Q's out and I get
32/50*6/49*3/48 = .0147 Is this correct?
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#9
08-22-2007, 05:11 PM
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Re: Probability of flopping 2pr?
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the explanation and the links. So, using J2, if I then want a subset of the 2 pair flops where my J will be the top pair, then I can take the A,K,Q's out and I get 32/50*6/49*3/48 = .0147 Is this correct? [/ QUOTE ] Multiply that expression by 3, but you already did that since the number is correct.
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