Bottom set on on a very dry board, 4 players to the flop

[mickeyzee]

I don't know if a fold is correct and I'm not going to try to analyze whether it is. I am by no means an expert or HSNL player. But if you decided on taking this hand all the way, wouldn't another flop call be better than a shove? If the button doesn't have an over set, shoving gives him and the BB a chance to make a correct decision and fold. A shove would signal to them your most likely holding is a set from the ragged board, "weak" flop call and then sudden strength. But after a call, the turn betting would probably go check, check, bet which I assume would be all-in for about 3400 making the pot around 12,000. If the BB calls, you reraise all-in(not much left) or so and you have a huge pot. If he folds it can still give you an opportunity to fold(which would be hard given the pot odds) I'm not saying this is the best move, I just think it should be either fold on the flop or play it out on the turn.

[cocarondelle]

Hi all,

(BTW I know the players in the game, and I do play in that game);

I agree with creed of hubris, High pocket poorly played by BB, and a set for the button (who is a solid player btw, and TT or JJ find the muck easily IMO).

I have yet to see a strong player fooling around with air in this spot, at those stakes, in a 4 way pot, against a reraiser betting the flop and getting called by another player, with everybody having around 100BB...If everybody is deep , like maybe at least 250BB, mayyyybe , but still very rare.

So, when I m playing my A-game I may find a fold here, when I m not playing my A game , I just go all in , knowing deeply inside my head that I m beaten by button, but refuse to " fold my set with 120 BB". [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ike]

I hate to agree with post-oak since he's come off as utterly retarded in this thread, but I kinda think ilvdnfl, although usually a tough opponent, could be [censored] around here. Minraising with 88, 44, and nothing else is pretty bad. He's giving his opponents a chance to fold when they're probably drawing close to dead. Why not just overcall like he would with 56 or JJ and see if someone with a worse hand will do the betting for him? And if the answer is to charge 56, why didn't he raise big enough to make it fold? Lots of people seem convinced he can't have anything but a set because then raising would suck, but minraising this flop with sets and only sets kinda sucks too.

[palman]

Post Oak's main point it seems is you don't make heroic folds on strange hands like the BB re-raising small then 1/3 pot betting. Folding a set getting 2:1 on a dry board is certainly a heroic fold. It's just too goofy of a hand bet-sizing wise that I think I could never find a fold here.

And really, how much EV do you think you really add to your game by being able to fold sets getting 2:1. I tend to not bother spending 3 hours thinking how I'm gona play a hand that's about as close to neutral EV regardless of what you do.

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]

And really, how much EV do you think you really add to your game by being able to fold sets getting 2:1. I tend to not bother spending 3 hours thinking how I'm gona play a hand that's about as close to neutral EV regardless of what you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

this couldn't be more wrong. its very likely that in this situation the button has a worse hand here either very often or never and very unlikely that he's raising with a balanced range such that we're close to indifferent between shoving and folding bottom set. having the right read on his tendencies here and making the right decision is probably at least a couple thousand dollars ev difference from making the wrong one.

[Jackal69]

[ QUOTE ]

3- PEOPLE WITH LOW POST COUNTS WHO DO NOT PLAY IN THESE GAMES - NO ONE [censored] CARES WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY. DO YOU THINK YOUR ADVICE IS USEFUL?? YOU CANT EVEN BEAT 1/2 NL SO WHY DO YOU THINK WE CARE WHAT YOU WOULD DO IN THIS SPOT? EITHER ASK HELPFUL QUESTIONS TO FOSTER DISCUSSION OR STICK TO LURKING AND POSTING IN THE STRATEGY FORUMS WHERE YOUR ADVICE WILL BE HELPFUL.



[/ QUOTE ]

Mods pls sticky and put at top of forum with big flashing lights surrounding...

[Jackal69]

wow this spot sucks... can you persuade him to post the hand on 2p2 like the daut vs hotmark one? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
wow this spot sucks... can you persuade him to post the hand on 2p2 like the daut vs hotmark one? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'm not sure if people thought I was kidding, but the results I posted were real.

The BB had KK, and the button had a straight draw (56). I PMed rojosox and that is what he told me.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wow this spot sucks... can you persuade him to post the hand on 2p2 like the daut vs hotmark one? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'm not sure if people thought I was kidding, but the results I posted were real.

The BB had KK, and the button had a straight draw (56). I PMed rojosox and that is what he told me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I was misled by people saying the button was good.

[BarbarianX]

Oops, seems to me Post-Oak got the last word there. No I'm not result-oriented, just not smart enough, but then I never out-smart myself by laying down a set just to prove how clever I am.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

And really, how much EV do you think you really add to your game by being able to fold sets getting 2:1. I tend to not bother spending 3 hours thinking how I'm gona play a hand that's about as close to neutral EV regardless of what you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

this couldn't be more wrong. its very likely that in this situation the button has a worse hand here either very often or never and very unlikely that he's raising with a balanced range such that we're close to indifferent between shoving and folding bottom set. having the right read on his tendencies here and making the right decision is probably at least a couple thousand dollars ev difference from making the wrong one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it's not completely worthless, but is it really that important. How often do you run into spots like this (laying down sets)? It's correct that you save "thousands of dollars" when you make the right decision, but in such a difficult bordeline situation like this, your action will only be worth a few % of those grands, because most of the times you will make the right/wrong decision no matter what info you have. And besides, this is a very unusual situation (happens how often, once every 10k hands?) So I disagree with Ike, it's not important for your long run result.

Let's think about it this way instead, what will be most costly in the long run?

1. Calling with a set in a spot like this?
2. Folding a set only to see your opponent flashing his draw or "air" (or just telling you afterwords he didn't have your set beat)?

My day would be ruined and so my A-game.