LOL, Donkaments.

[ActionJeff]

I was reading a thread on cr and MTTs when I came across this quote:

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I like his comment about the top places are reserved for the luckiest... because I agree

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I believe that this is completely true. The variance and luck factor in tournaments is so high that I don't think it is possible to ever have a meaningful sample size. If you played several thousand $100rs on PokerStars, that would probably be enough- but for a tournament with 2000+ players, no one has actually played enough times to realize their win rate except by pure chance. The guys who you hear about winning the Stars Sunday million twice, or going on a huge tourney rush, some of the time might be skilled players- but have to be so insanely lucky to pull it off that the skill factor isn't particularly meaningful. You see huge donkeys win a WCOOP one year and then 5 100rs and 2 200rs and 3 more big scores.. it seems IMPOSSIBLE for them to suck at poker or even suck at MTTs- but then they swing down $100k playing online tournaments. Its very possible and happens all the time.

Tournaments are still a reliable source of income- A very good player playing 10+ tournaments a day is going to show a profit almost every month. But, the profit is insigificant compared to the big Sunday tournaments and huge live tourneys, where one skilled and/or very lucky player can win several months worth of profit just by running good. I would say I'm one of the best online MTTers period, and I know many would agree. I have 780k ish in profit in online MTTs over about 2500 entered. Strassa2 won a SINGLE tournament for 440k. The guy who won the WCOOP last year won over a million dollars. Every couple weeks someone wins a million dollars in a live tourney.

In the tournaments I've played, I've won dozens and dozens of $100 buy in tourneys or $11 to $33 rebuys. I've made the final 3 tables or better of at least 30 tournaments with $40k+ for first, and with no scores over $100k I can tell you that if I had never played a single MTT other than $100rs and $200+ Sunday/huge field tourneys I would have kept 74% of my profit and reduced volume by eighty percent. And, as ridiculous as this sounds, I've ran terribly bad in tournaments with huge prize pools.

If you are still learning poker and want to seriously pursue tournaments to build a bankroll, its a great idea. I understand that the majority of the players on this forum fit this description.

But, if you are a pro player who is actually good at poker, has a bankroll, and wants to make as much money as possible, you're wasting your time. Play really big buy in/field tourneys and hope to run lucky and win big, because the other 90% of the tourneys you enter only exist to make you feel better about the variance of the tournaments that matter.