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  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:27 PM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
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Default Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

There is no question in my mind that certain female Asians who never smoked, exercise, eat right, and have extreme longevity in their family, are better than 50% to hit 90 if they are 50 now. Especially given expected medical advances.

But what about American males who don't have centurian relatives. If you were allowed to examine and query all American, Caucasion, male 50 year olds without such relatives, are there any that you could bet even money would make 90?
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:35 PM
DLKeeper1 DLKeeper1 is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

no because they're most likely overweight so they will face problems like heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:45 PM
shemp shemp is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

[ QUOTE ]
If you were allowed to examine and query all American, Caucasion, male 50 year olds without such relatives, are there any that you could bet even money would make 90?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, sure, but I'd have to look at actuarial tables first. I'd guess a 50 year old never smoked married male is a favorite. Like I said, though, if I did actual research (I know you aren't into that sort of thing), I could give an informed answer (boring, I know).
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:47 PM
PLOlover PLOlover is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

interesting you might be able to bootstrap it and say if they can make 65 or 70 in decent health, then if they are wealthy the tech might then be available to get them to 90.
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:52 PM
shemp shemp is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

Life insurance companies may start to monitor this thread. I'm looking forward to some groundbreaking speculation based on ethnicity, weight, marital status, cholesterol levels, etc.
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  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:54 PM
samsonite2100 samsonite2100 is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

I was reading somewhere that a 65 year old can expect to live to 84, on average. So this doesn't seem like too much of a stretch...
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  #7  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:08 PM
cbloom cbloom is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

Wealth is a huge factor. Aside from the wealthy being generally healthier and getting better health care, only the very wealthy will be able to afford the theoretical future life-extending treatments that make this bet +EV.
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  #8  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:20 PM
Blarg Blarg is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

It's my guess that a life expectancy of 90 isn't the norm for people who are 50, so if we can't pick people out for longevity by looking at the longevity of their parents and/or family, we'd have to try to find something else concrete to work with. Offhand, I'd guess diet, level of substance use and abuse, exercise, where one lives, stress levels, and wealth would all be very important components in longevity.

In the US, they supposedly live longest in Hawaii. It may not be mathematically sensible to give any 50 year old a 50% chance to hit 90, but I guess if I were to put money on anyone to do it, it would be: A non-smoker who is at most a light drinker and does no other drugs, lives in Hawaii, is retired and has nothing particularly stressful in their life to worry about, has plenty of money to meet any health needs and buy the best healthy food, actually does eat healthy and moderately, and gets plenty of exercise.

Hawaii has a pretty fair number of people who live quite a bit like that.
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  #9  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:58 PM
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

Does anyone know what the rate of dementia (any form) is in 90 year olds?
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  #10  
Old 11-29-2007, 06:38 PM
cbloom cbloom is offline
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Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know what the rate of dementia (any form) is in 90 year olds?

[/ QUOTE ]

From personal observation it seems to be around 99.9%
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