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  #11  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:15 AM
sondring sondring is offline
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Default Re: Flopping Full House question

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  #12  
Old 11-28-2007, 04:12 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Flopping Full House question

More counterpoint: Hero has two opponents - right? I realize this is far fetched, but if both opponents have a seven, it's pretty easy for Hero to be behind:

twodimes.net/h/?z=3964808
pokenum -o js 5s 5d th - qs 7c 9d kh - 8s 7h ac 6c -- 7s 7d 5h
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 7s 7d 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 5s 5d Th 189 28.38 477 71.62 0 0.00 0.284
Qs 7c 9d Kh 252 37.84 414 62.16 0 0.00 0.378
8s Ac 6c 7h 225 33.78 441 66.22 0 0.00 0.338

I try to avoid the dilemma by not voluntarily playing starting hands with low pairs. I hate underboats.

In addition to possible quads, there are always six possible full houses when the board has a pair and Hero doesn't have one of the cards of the pair. In case the board on the river ends up 775TJ, Hero has the worst possible full house and can't very well tell if someone betting on the river has a seven, perhaps with an ace kicker, or sevens full (or jacks full or tens full or quad sevens).

Ugh.

Having written the above, I agree whole heartedly with betting the pot after this flop and hoping for the best. Maybe nobody will have a seven (most likely), or at least maybe only one opponent will have a seven with no five (second most likely). And in either case, Hero is ahead.

Buzz
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  #13  
Old 11-28-2007, 04:39 AM
thisnamedoesntfi thisnamedoesntfi is offline
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Default Re: Flopping Full House question

[ QUOTE ]
COUNTERPOINT:
pokenum -o 5s 5d js th - 5c 6d 7h 8s -- 7s 7d 5h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7s 7d 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 5s 5d Th 6 0.73 814 99.27 0 0.00 0.007
8s 5c 6d 7h 814 99.27 6 0.73 0 0.00 0.993

If you are behind, you are behind a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's about in line with the odds of villain having a 5 in his hand 45/1.
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  #14  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:11 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Flopping Full House question

Hi thisnamedoesntfi - [ QUOTE ]
That's about in line with the odds of villain having a 5 in his hand 45/1.

[/ QUOTE ]No. And you can do this one in your head.

The probability of one opponent having a five is 1- 41/45 or 4/45, making the odds against it 41 to 4.

The 41/45 results from a cancellation of terms. The whole expression is really
1-C(44,4)/C(45,4) and that immediately reduces to 1-41/45.

See it?

Buzz
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  #15  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:54 AM
thisnamedoesntfi thisnamedoesntfi is offline
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Default Re: Flopping Full House question

I see it Buzz, but (not sure I understand it) doesn't that make the whole theory of blockers obsolete? Personally I hate blockers, every time I think I have them they aren't blocking squat. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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