K-1 Heroes tonight

[Hoya]

Ok - any thoughts here?

Jonathan Wiezorek -155 vs. Tim Persey +125

Hideo Tokoro -325 vs. Brad Pickett +250

Jake Shields -1200 vs. Ido Pariente +650

Gesias Calvancanti -450 vs. Nam Phan +325

Melvin Manhoef -325 vs. Dong Sik Yoon +250

Mighty Mo -325 vs. Ruben Villareal +250

Kazushi Sakuraba -200 vs. Royce Gracie +160

Brock Lesnar -1100 vs. Min Soo Kim +625

No line on the Johnnie Morton fight.

I think there may be some good value in Pickett, but I don't see much I like otherwise. BTW, Lesnar is huge:

[Utah]

I took Sakuraba at -200 on a pure line play and I took Yoon at +250 on a pure line play. Both were very very thin value bets though. If you play pinny you can get pickett at +291 versus +250.

Lesnar should kill Kim but I don't like -900 or worse for a guy fighting his first fight.

[svj]

With the exception of the Sakuraba fight, I know little, if anything about the following fighters. I'm simply taking advantage (I believe) of pricing errors inherent in the MMA game.

Min Soo Kim +811 over Brock Lesnar

For example, Min Soo Kim... well... is not a sterling MMA fighter. He won a silver medal for judo in 96. Ten years ago.

Brock Lesnar is a complete unknown, other than his impressive amateur wrestling background. How much training he's done, or how well he's picked it up, is anyone's guess.

I am counting on two factors here:
a) From a mental perspective, American professional wrestlers tend to drastically overestimate their abilities, leading to rude awakenings. (Sean O'Haire & Bam Bam Bigelow's MMA careers, Steve Austin's acting, John Cena's rap, etc. etc.)

b) There hasn't been such a thing as a legitimate 10:1 dog in MMA since Royce was tapping out boxers wearing one glove. (Arguments could be made for Ortiz vs. Shamrock 3) Certainly not 8:1 vs. an inexperienced first time fighter.

I have what I like to call a "s*** happens" percentage of 10%. That allowance covers the following...

a) Miracle punch/takedown from left field (The ridiculous Sell vs. Smith hail mary punch)
b) Slips that result in ended fights. (GSP vs. Serra)
c) Wild injuries (BJ breaking two ribs in a rollover with Hughes or Shogun vs. Coleman)
d) Lost focus (Post-Sylvia Arlovski, Frank Mir)
e) Fighters keeping injuries quiet (Ortiz vs. Griffin)
f) Cold/flu/illness (Sokojdou vs. Arona)
g) Completely weird stuff (Hughes vs. Newton)
h) Fingers in the eye (Crocop/Barnett 3, Liddel/Couture 2)

Take that 10% out, and if Kim can beat Lesnar 1 time out of 10 on real skill, there's value.

I still expect Lesnar to maul him, though.





Ido Pariente +696 over Jake Shields.

Haven't seen either guy fight. Ido's primary discipline is Muay Thai. Shields is wrestling/jiu-jitsu.
Should be an easy fight for Shields, right?

I would agree, except for an interview I just read where he's said that he's been working *exclusively* on his stand up, specifically, Muay Thai.

For anyone that watched Liddel/Jackson, Griffin/Jardine, Jardine/Alexander, Griffin/Bonnar, you can quickly surmise that when to MMA fighters strike the dreaded "gentleman's agreement" to keep it standing, oddsmakers would do better to mimic hockey odds. Put 2 strikers in the ring together, and no one ever really has a better than 75% chance of beating the other striker. It's just too easy to land the wild haymaker if the other guy isn't trying to take you down. I don't expect Shields to honor that "agreement" if he starts getting soundly whipped on the feet, but 7:1 is great value for the superior striker to get a KO before Shields changes his mind.



Kazushi Sakuraba -211 over Royce Gracie (double unit)

Sakuraba has been staying somewhat active, having three fights in the last year (2-0-1NC). Gracie's last fight was just over a year ago. (Loss to Hughes, Win for his wallet)

Gracie's preferred style is to jump on/under his opponent, and ride him for so long he eventually makes a mistake. That style just DOES NOT WORK in a 5 minute round setup.

I don't think Royce has ever won a match with a true Mixed Martial Artist. He made his career out of tapping out guys that didn't know what Jiu-Jitsu was. He has tremendous name recognition through his early UFC success, and that is what's keeping value in the price. Since Gracie can't throw leather worth a damn, he doesn't even have the "puncher's chance" on his side.

The only way that Sakuraba loses this fight in my mind is a) his accumulated injuries have caught up with him, b) he slips and falls on his a**. (The "s*** happens" percentage). I think Sakuraba wins 85% of the time here. (odds need 68%+ for value)




Thoughts?

[Utah]

I agree with your analysis on the Lesnar fight. No one is a 10:1 dog and especially not someone with exactly zero fights.

I know nothing of the Ido fight but yours was an interesting analysis.

[beboppoker]

All of sakuraba's fights Ive seen has ended by submission. I think Gracie is not too far behind in this fight, so I bet on him at +215. Im not that confident though, bet for fun on this one.

Do you guys know where we can see these fights? is it ppv?

[Hoya]

2-3 will be on Shhotime at 9, the rest on a $34.99 PPV (this includes Lesnar and Gracie/Saku).

[TalkingDonkey]

Mighty Mo seems a good pick at -325. Warpath is a not-to-good guy who likes to stand and bang, whereas Mo makes a living knocking the [censored] out of K-1 kickboxing champions. If any fight should have someone as a 10-1 fave it would be this one.

Also keep in mind Lesnar is more than a WWE guy; he's also a former NCAA wrestling champ. Dude has skills.

[bigalt]

[ QUOTE ]
No line on the Johnnie Morton fight.


[/ QUOTE ]

welcome to mma

[JPT III]

anyone watching this who wouldn't mind posting the results of the various fights?

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone watching this who wouldn't mind posting the results of the various fights?

[/ QUOTE ]
You can see here - http://www.sherdog.com/news/news.asp?n_id=7750