5/10 semibluff turns into potential 3rd barrel

[Christophers]

Villain is YoureInOilCountry, he plays 19/13/2.4. Pretty nitty/straightforward reg, but probably a small winner. No history at all.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($1010)
UTG ($1742.75)
MP ($4133.73)
Hero ($1181.25)
Button ($1159.46)
SB ($1000)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $30, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $55</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $165</font>, UTG calls $110.

Turn: ($405) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $265</font>, UTG calls $265.

River: ($935) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero thinks and...

(about 700 left on the river)

Who bets turn, and is 2/3 pot a good amount? Who shoves river? FWIW I'm hardly ever raising AJ on this flop, but I'm pretty sure we haven't played enough together for him to know that.

[luckychewy]

definitely shove here, but turn looks like a check to me.

[straate]

wow...i would bet turn hard, and check this river

he calls you with any jack (which he has)

[TheWorstPlayer]

I would very rarely raise this flop. And I definitely shove the river. You can't win with Q high!

[luckychewy]

i just think when a guy this tight bet/calls the flop he has at the very least a good jack which i doubt he folds on the turn. also since we picked up some disguised outs we might stack him if he value blocks riv/convinces himself we are on missed spades if we spike an 8/k and shove. but i do see the merit in checking turn and checking river as played...but i think an overpair is just as likely as jx, no? of course i don't think he would fold a jack here. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Get_better_Baris]

I don't like turn bet. Checking behind is better than 265
Also the turn bet needs to be stronger(for a one shot deal) or weaker to setup a psb(or try 2) on river bluff

[uconnsports1]

bet bet bet allin

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
he calls you with any jack (which he has)

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think he has a J here?

Shove and watch him fold his overpair

[raptor517]

i call u with 22 on the river.

[Christophers]

I chickened out, he had AA.