Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > PL/NL Texas Hold'em > Small Stakes

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:30 AM
jk3a jk3a is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The 816, Holla
Posts: 3,531
Default It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

Villain is 15/12/3 thru 1200 hands. I'm running 19/18 thru 100 hands at this table. Villain prob. has me around 20/16 overall I would guess. We got it aipf when we both had AKs much earlier in the session, but it was my CO open vs. his BB 3bet and my 4bet, so obv. a little different.



Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $393.55
UTG: $235.10
MP: $99.55
CO: $362.95
BTN: $39.55
Hero (SB): $207.10

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8</font>, MP folds, CO calls $8, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">UTG raises to $86</font>, CO folds,


I know many, many of you are going to say, SHOVE, lol, wtf, we have a king and another king, go all in. And, OMG it looks like you're squeezing. I don't think anyone has reasonable proof of 15/12's 4betting light from utg 5 handed in any situation. Let me give some math here.

We need at least 40% avg. equity against his range to make shoving profitable assuming he's obv. never folding.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


Using an unweighted range here, we only have 47% equity which includes a 3.5% tie. If you weight his range AT ALL, I think a very strong argument can be made for folding this.
  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:32 AM
LT22 LT22 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Making Vids
Posts: 352
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

el oh el
  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:32 AM
dd323 dd323 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,702
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

[ QUOTE ]

SHOVE, lol, wtf, we have a king and another king, go all in. And, OMG it looks like you're squeezing.

[/ QUOTE ]
  #4  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:33 AM
willw9 willw9 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: where momma keeps the peanut butter
Posts: 4,235
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

I feel like you shoved and he had QQ or something.
  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:34 AM
ikestoys ikestoys is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: I\'m not folding, stop bluffing
Posts: 5,642
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

if he's 4betting AK, he can 4bet QQ... its a squeeze situation...

good ssnl needed this thread tonight
  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:40 AM
shpanko shpanko is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Mile High Club
Posts: 4,726
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

I see where you're going, but if he knows you're willing to get it in pf with AK then can't he 4-bet/call QQ?
  #7  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:41 AM
jk3a jk3a is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The 816, Holla
Posts: 3,531
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

Here's a weighted range which includes 1/2 the AK combos and 1/3 of the QQ combos.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.663% 41.71% 03.95% 9284668 879812.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 54.337% 50.38% 03.95% 11215660 879812.00 { AA, KdKh, QcQd, QcQh, AdKd, AhKh, AcKd, AcKh }
  #8  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:43 AM
carrotsnake carrotsnake is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 2,278
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

your ahead and theres money already in the pot ?
  #9  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:49 AM
jk3a jk3a is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The 816, Holla
Posts: 3,531
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

I certainly can't argue that this isn't likely to be slightly +EV in general to shove. That's not the point I'm trying to make with this thread.

I'm trying to show 2 things.
1. It's possible that shoving is slightly -EV depending on how you weight his range.
2. It's VERY marginal even if it is "always" +ev.
  #10  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:52 AM
ikestoys ikestoys is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: I\'m not folding, stop bluffing
Posts: 5,642
Default Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop

wow! no one has thought of this before... there isn't thread after thread debunking what you are saying in the archives... people aren't taking you seriously because they can't think of the refutation, not that its been done over and over and over again.
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:35 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.