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  #51  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:02 PM
cato-tonia cato-tonia is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

i MAKE 3 to 1 on my money. that's the bottom line, bud, either meet it, or shut up.

simply put 3 to 2 is good on one play: you offer me that on all plays? right, that's "massively" EV. your offer is inadequate. i have explained why.

the mod at 2 + 2 is inadequate.

by suitable, i was assuming 59.0 as a low.

and i will take your money.

-c.

and as for you, thremp, my suspicion is, you do not play professionally. that's a strong suspicion.
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  #52  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:05 PM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

I'm confused

was Wisconsin @ Penn St not a play of yours???
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  #53  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:11 PM
Performify Performify is offline
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Location: Sports Betting forum
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
i MAKE 3 to 1 on my money.

[/ QUOTE ]


lol


If you're reliably making 3:1 every 60-90 days, you'd be a multi-millionaire from sports betting alone.

my suspicion is, you are just a troll. that's a strong suspicion.


-P
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  #54  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:11 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
i MAKE 3 to 1 on my money. that's the bottom line, bud, either meet it, or shut up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gurantee that you do not.

I will lay -1000000000000 that you can not do this on WA spreads.

You're such a fool.
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  #55  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:12 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]

i MAKE 3 to 1 on my money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perf, change title to "Perpetual Bankroll Tripler" plz.
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  #56  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:13 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
and as for you, thremp, my suspicion is, you do not play professionally. that's a strong suspicion.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct. I am independently wealthy and spend my days posing as an internet gambler for amusement. Look for my youtube's detailing this exciting development.
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  #57  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:22 PM
Performify Performify is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

Rereading this, the only thing I can think is maybe cat just doesn't get what is being offered.

They're not asking to book your bets.

They're offering a straight up challenge wager, a 10k fight if you will.

You will make your normal bets for the week and record your picks on the record. (there are some minor stipulations of course to ensure you are actually picking reasonable lines and not something completely unavailable).

If at the end of 100 picks you have won 60 or more, you will win the 15k bet against you.

If at the end of 100 picks you have won 59 or less, you will lose the 10k you bet.

You still make your own bets wherever you're currently making them, and profit from them.

If you are really a 60% capper than this is an opportunity to gain significant edge, as being offered 3:2 on a 60% occurrence -- a "true line" for you picking 60/100 would be -150 if you're a 60% capper, but you're being offered +150 which has to be more +EV than what you see in a regular bet unless you're really picking at about 80% ATS.

I do acknowledge I guess that if you don't trust me as the mod to hold the money, than you'd probably want to pay an official escrow service. Many of these exist (just look at the ones trusted by eBay), and even with the escrow fees you're looking at a massively +EV bet if you truly believe you are a 60% capper.

If you beleive you're a 55% capper you're still looking at significantly +EV: the true line for you picking 55/100 would be -122 if that were true.

By laying 3:2, they're actually saying that you're a 40% handicapper. At anything above 40% this bet is +EV for you. The farther above your confidence level, the more +EV you are.

But you know all that, right?

Anyways -- I'm not trying to mock you. I try to be welcoming to all in modding this forum, that's my role here. I'm just trying to explain how +EV this bet would be for you if you truly are the 60% capper you feel your 19-pick record displays that you are.

-P
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  #58  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:38 PM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

perf - yeah, you might be right.
It really seems like tlt doesn't understand the terms of what is being offered to him.
Otherwise he wouldn't insist on getting paid the same amount that he would make on the bets elsewhere. He is already allowed those bets elsewhere and then this prop would be ON TOP of that. And if he's 3:1 already then him taking this prop should be a no-brainer for him.
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  #59  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:53 PM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

If anyone missed it, here is Thremp's excellent post on how good he has done with selectively making picks and running a little hot

this pwns cato real bad
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  #60  
Old 12-01-2007, 05:04 PM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: the proof is in the pudding

don't feed the troll!!
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