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  #31  
Old 11-11-2007, 02:28 PM
matrix matrix is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - Nit open shoves full stack... I have QQ

with only 50 hands how can we say that villain

i) hasn't simply been card dead for all this time and now has JJ or AK
ii) is really a nit
iii) wasn't distracted by other stuff (TV gf etc) while playing...

50 hands is little dat ato go on - it tends to suggest this is AA/KK but not much more than that.

Collect 1000 hands data telling you he has 9/1/1 stats and now we can draw conclusions...

also a call here IS +EV - so best play is to call. But all the peoples saying "snap call with fist pump" think a little.

His range here is JJ+ AK pretty much

overall we are a 52/48ish UNDERDOG if that range is right (add in a bluff once in a blue moon and we're a favourite again) but barely

Vs 1 hand in that range we are a big fav (JJ) vs 1 we split vs 2 we are a big dog and a "coinflip" 55/45 favourite v AK.

If he's weighting these hands (only doing this with black Jacks red Queens all Aces/Kings and all AK's) and not playing 100% of them - it's bad call. (we are ~40/60 dog)

So - if this is a +EV call it is JUST +EV.

There is no shame in folding these situations preflop until we gots a read. These flips for whole stacks are very BIG on variance. By all means snap call with double fistpump and jig dancing if you think you are 0.0000000001% ahead and you are emotionally equipped and bakrolled enough to handle the big swingy variance.

But if losing a stack to a misclicked K7o or to AA/KK will tilt you and make you play bad afterwards - or your bankroll is thin on the ground I fold here without thinking about it.

Personally I'd call just to see his cards - and then make a note.
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  #32  
Old 11-11-2007, 02:58 PM
poker_n00b poker_n00b is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - Nit open shoves full stack... I have QQ

[ QUOTE ]
There was a regular nit how had like 9/1/1 stats that I played with how I noticed starting to open shove his stack with only AA, I was shocked how often he actually got called.

With QQ here I dump it without thinking about it.

If everyone is saying call here, then is open shoving with AA and KK not worth doing?

[/ QUOTE ]

it is not that often that when u have AA the otehr guy has QQ, KK, AK, maybe JJ. So, no, with 100bb stacks it is not ev maximizing.
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  #33  
Old 11-11-2007, 10:13 PM
traz traz is offline
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Default Re: NL25 - Nit open shoves full stack... I have QQ

small sample + no history = I call
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  #34  
Old 11-11-2007, 11:54 PM
Jw513 Jw513 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 298
Default Re: NL25 - Nit open shoves full stack... I have QQ

[ QUOTE ]
with only 50 hands how can we say that villain

i) hasn't simply been card dead for all this time and now has JJ or AK
ii) is really a nit
iii) wasn't distracted by other stuff (TV gf etc) while playing...

50 hands is little dat ato go on - it tends to suggest this is AA/KK but not much more than that.

Collect 1000 hands data telling you he has 9/1/1 stats and now we can draw conclusions...

also a call here IS +EV - so best play is to call. But all the peoples saying "snap call with fist pump" think a little.

His range here is JJ+ AK pretty much

overall we are a 52/48ish UNDERDOG if that range is right (add in a bluff once in a blue moon and we're a favourite again) but barely

Vs 1 hand in that range we are a big fav (JJ) vs 1 we split vs 2 we are a big dog and a "coinflip" 55/45 favourite v AK.

If he's weighting these hands (only doing this with black Jacks red Queens all Aces/Kings and all AK's) and not playing 100% of them - it's bad call. (we are ~40/60 dog)

So - if this is a +EV call it is JUST +EV.

There is no shame in folding these situations preflop until we gots a read. These flips for whole stacks are very BIG on variance. By all means snap call with double fistpump and jig dancing if you think you are 0.0000000001% ahead and you are emotionally equipped and bakrolled enough to handle the big swingy variance.

But if losing a stack to a misclicked K7o or to AA/KK will tilt you and make you play bad afterwards - or your bankroll is thin on the ground I fold here without thinking about it.

Personally I'd call just to see his cards - and then make a note.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great post. I knew his range was JJ+, AK, but the fact that there could be other factors that alter his range made me call (he could be tilting, or just card dead and getting bored). I knew I only had JJ dominated and flipping or bad shape against his other range.. but I was thinking to myself... "I would be the biggest nit ever if I fold this.." But I guess others suggest folding would be the best option.

Bankroll could also be a reason for folding which is a good point you made. But I am well rolled for this and can handle the variance.

For ppl saying to fold, would you call if your bankroll was 30+ BI?
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