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#11
11-21-2007, 05:48 AM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
I understand some of what your saying in terms of my Standard dev.
However, the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays). I am not saying that this means I am a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100, I just think that given the fact that I was consistently winning (even if it was above my true winrate of my abilities) + given the fact that my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs. FWIW KK,QQ,AKo,AKs,AQs are all losers in these 7k hands. Where as at NL100 AA/KK/QQ were easily my 3 biggest winners. In my session tonight, I lost money with 2pair, trips, straights, and flushs. (Lost 7BI) In 500 hands I didnt win a single pot over 40BB. 
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#12
11-21-2007, 06:07 AM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
The luck line or sklansky bucks line being negative doesnt mean you're unlucky it means your putting the money in bad, ie you sook.
Of course this can be [censored] up by getting coolered eg QQ vs AA and all the money goes in on AQ3 board and such.
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#13
11-21-2007, 06:38 AM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
Ouch. Take some time off. Study a ton, maybe get some sweating/coaching. I would prob move up to 50nl if you can afford it.... did you adjust enough from 100nl to 25nl?... playing laggy at 25nl may be alot less effective?
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#15
11-21-2007, 07:38 AM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
[ QUOTE ]
Ouch. Take some time off. Study a ton, maybe get some sweating/coaching. I would prob move up to 50nl if you can afford it.... did you adjust enough from 100nl to 25nl?... playing laggy at 100nl may not be effective ? [/ QUOTE ]
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#16
11-21-2007, 08:41 AM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
move up where they respect your raises
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#17
11-21-2007, 08:53 AM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
So did you fix your leaks?
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#18
11-21-2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
[ QUOTE ]
the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays). [/ QUOTE ] Ah, ok. That makes it more more plausible that you are a winning NL $100 player. [ QUOTE ] my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs. [/ QUOTE ] That is much lower than a plausible losing rate. However, it's much more likely that you can find some period (starting with hand 1) in which you are 3 standard deviations below average than that you will do in a fixed period. So, it's not clear that this is an outrageously bad streak as opposed to just uncommonly bad. However, there is a potential benefit. In case you are a losing player, losing rapidly saved you a lot of time.
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#20
11-21-2007, 03:38 PM
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Re: Beat: 26BI downswing when moving down to fix leaks.
[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost certain I'm a lifetime loser at 25NL [/ QUOTE ] There is obv some big leak of mine but I have always done better at SSNL then MSNL (live and online). The problem was is that I didn't want to play underrolled and start at NL100 again. I might just take part of my live roll and put it online to roll myself for NL100.
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