30/60 river decision: to raise or to call?

[Chipspin]

I'm taking a shot at the 30/60 at the Oaks for about the 5th or 6th time. Normally I'm grinding the 15/30, and most of the 30 regulars recognize me and realize I'm playing nittier than I do in 15. Been folding for the last 45 minutes and then pick up this hand.

SB is an uberLAG. I've played with him a few times and seen him get way out of line with marginal hands. He'll also call one raise in the blinds with just about any two cards.

I'm MP1 with QQ. Folded to me, I raise, folded to the button who cold calls, both blinds call.

Flop: J85 rainbow.
check, check, I bet, button folds, SB check-raises, BB folds, I call intending to raise a safe turn card.

Turn: 3, completing rainbow.
SB checks, [am I really about to get c/r'd twice in a row?] I bet, he calls.

River: 5.
SB stares at the card for a minute and then bets, I??

Thanks for your help on this one.

[private joker]

I go ahead and 3-bet the flop. It's a fairly dry board with no flush draw (and only T9 and 76 as likely straight draws), so chances are he's hard-playing a pair. Keep the initiative and make him peel another bet on the flop. I like getting money in against LAGs as early as possible when I have the best hand. On a board that's more draw-heavy I like calling and raising a safe turn card because you're less of a favorite on draw-heavy flops.

As played, the turn is an easy bet and the river looks like an easy call to me. Raising might have some value, but you would have to fold to a 3-bet, and trip 5s is certainly in his range the way he played the hand. Folding would be pretty bad.

[GBL]

joker about summed it up. you have to at the very least call of course because of the missed straight draws which he could very well have c/r for.. but my only question to you is why not 3bet the flop?

[vmacosta]

He took a pretty weird line against you, so its gonna be hard to get any authoritative answers.

First off, PJ was right, you should tend to 3-bet the flop and keep pounding particularly when you're up against somebody loose and tricky.

As for the river, it kinda looks like a random stab with an 8x/Jx hand who thinks you're predictable/nervous enough that you'll call with AK but he'll have an easy fold to a raise (but of course it's always possible he calls your raise bc he can't help himself). It's also possible it's a b/3b attempt with a much stronger hand.

So basically his range is pretty damn wide but his range for putting in MORE money on this river is pretty narrow. When you add in important metagame factors for taking shots (you will play much worse if you feel like you made an expensive mistake here), I'd recommend just calling and seeing what he has.

Now if you were me it would be an easy raise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[HOWMANY]

Please raise, this random donk is like a gift from the heavens to make up for the extra bet he was supposed to give you on the turn.

[Chipspin]

[ QUOTE ]
I go ahead and 3-bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do tend to want to raise the turn a lot, and I've thought that maybe I should be 3-betting flops more regularly in position than planning on a turn raise. And I know I whiffed my turn raise in this situation...

However, don't you think that I get an extra half bet by raising the turn against most LAGs in this spot? I was very confused when he checked the turn, because I solidly had him on a pair, and I thought he would place me on AK/AQ with my flop call.

[tradingman123]

Easy raise here... I fold to a 3 bet if he plays str8 forward.

[cowboy billy]

as played is fine, I mix it up with 3-betting flop, depending on the player and on how I've been playing, both lines have their merits

don't like river raise tho, most likely villain has air and he's folding, if he has the 5 it's gonna cost hero

only if villain has a J precisely, he could have taken this line to try to max value against either AK/AQ (checking turn to induce a call from hero on river to 'snap of a bluff')or p9/p10 and even then he's not certain to pay hero's raise off, it would certainly not look like a bluff by hero, considering his tight image

so I'd advise to just call river, bc I don't see value in a river raise

[Chipspin]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy raise here... I fold to a 3 bet if he plays str8 forward.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my first thought. But with what hands does villain c/r the flop, c/c the turn, and b/c the river with? It doesn't seem like there are many hands I beat that he wouldn't bet the turn with but could call a river raise.

[tradingman123]

I think that a lot of villains bet this river thinking that the 2nd 5 protects them from raises from hero. In that line of thinking, villain would try to maximize value with a J against A/K or more likely TT. I think this is far more likely than a 5 since not very many villains would ck raise a lone 5 on the flop esp if you have been playing nitty.