Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)

[skates]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $44.85
BB: $7.55
Villain (UTG): $14.05
CO: $10.20
BTN: $28.70

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
Villain calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, BB calls $1.00, Villain calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">Villain raises all-in to $12.80</font>, Hero???

I called following this logic:
It costs me ~$11 to call into a pot of ~$28 which means I only need to win something like 40% of the time, which I assumed I had by counting the 3 aces as outs (12 outs then, which means I win something like 45% of the time). Is this correct? Or is my math too approximated and too reliant on the aces as outs. (I figure at the very worst, I'm like 33% to win if he has a set, and there's still a good shot that my 9 is an overcard). The guy started flaming me, but I thought it was the right call. Was I correct?

[Gelford]

pokerstove ftw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[spivey]

Yeah, this call is fine.

[Antinome]

I think your math is slightly wrong- you are calling 10.80 to win 18.55 or 1.7:1, you need 1/(1+1.7) or ~37%. You have 8 cleanish outs and 4 dirty ones, call it 10; 10*4 is 40%, calling is OK. Versus some players it isn't good, against others it is easy.

[pr0crast]

Pokerstove confirms roughly 40% equity here. As Antinome said above, a call here is g00t.

[homeslice]

bet more on teh flop...

[checkmate36]

I need help on this one.

If hero is ok to call since he has 40% equity in the hand, doesn't that mean villian has 60% equity.

Why are we going into this with a 60% chance of losing?

Thanks for helping me see the light.

[spivey]

There's this thing called dead money, I suggest you read up about it.

[checkmate36]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I need help on this one.

If hero is ok to call since he has 40% equity in the hand, doesn't that mean villian has 60% equity.

Why are we going into this with a 60% chance of losing?

Thanks for helping me see the light.

[/ QUOTE ]

18.55 in pot and we only need to call 10.8 so we don't need to win more often than we lose:

If we win 40 times and lose 60 times then:

40 X 18.55 = 742
60 X 10.80 = 648

and 742 &gt; 648 so we end up making money.

742 - 648 = 94

$94 to be exact, which divided by 100 (number of samples I used:60+40) = .94 meaning that

Each time this happens we expect to make 94 cents.