canadian players with lots of USD

[homeboy604]

so the USD has lost $0.07 on the canadian dollar, which is a ton of money if you've got 20k+ you want to cash out.
who's waiting to cashout to CAD, when the the USD recovers?

anyone with knowledge on the subject: what is the forecast for the USD over the next few months, and is it expected to make a recovery?
thanks

[stinkypete]

it's expected to keep tanking, as evidenced by today's interest rates

[homeboy604]

so...should i cash some money out now? i dont need any money for awhile so i could afford to wait.

[167-169]

How do Canadians get money online/withdraw? I had Neteller. Never bothered to take the money out. I play on empire, ongame, FT & stars.

[stinkypete]

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so...should i cash some money out now? i dont need any money for awhile so i could afford to wait.

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you're much better off putting it in an account that will earn you interest. so yes, cash out now.

[mtgordon]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about the currency market myself

...however I believe it is the common consensus that basically nobody can really predict it either. If they could they would be billionaires just like if someone could predict the stock market. Obviously there's people that are really good at it but it takes a ton of research rather than just a general feel. If this is correct stinkypete is correct that you should take it out just for the purposes of getting interest on it rather than it sitting somewhere interest free.

However, I've also heard multiple people say that the USD is going to go down in a value a lot but I assume those people are just speculating (read guessing) rather than actually having research to back it up.

[ahnuld]

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so...should i cash some money out now? i dont need any money for awhile so i could afford to wait.

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you're much better off putting it in an account that will earn you interest. so yes, cash out now.

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IRP for the win. Yeah, my cash is in USD optimizer stuff making me 4% a year so im not too worried. But this move has hurt. Wtv, just buy a lot of stuff in the states because its cheaper now and you wont feel the pinch as much.

[DcifrThs]

a few points:

1) the overall expectation of betting on any developed country currency is 0. currency is a 0 sum game.

2) the 2 year rates are typically used to determine, in the near term, what the market has priced in terms of interest rates (a higher rate in one country means that depreciation is priced in and vice versa)

3) the current USA/CAN 2 year rate ratio is slightly above 1. meaning that USD is priced to depreciate further vs. teh CAD.

so just get your money out now and don't bet on currencies.

(NOTE: this confuses people so i'll spell it out more clearly. 1 and 3 are not contradictory. while you might be able to tell what the market has priced in, and you may know the direction of the currency in question, you need it to move by more than expectations in order to make money, otherwise, you could arb it via spot & forward mkts)

Barron

EDIT: you shoudl also keep a minimum amt needed to play in USD at all times. the less exposure you have to a volatile 0 expectation bet the better.

[stinkypete]

what dcifrths said, in simple terms:

the USD is likely to fall some more with respect to CAD.

based on that, you might be tempted to conclude that you're better off having the money in CAD.

however, when you consider the interest you can earn - which is more on USD than it is on CAD - you should theoretically end up breaking even. so it shouldn't matter whether you keep the money in a USD high yield savings account or a CAD one, unless you have a crystal ball.

[talentdeficit]

i haven't done any research, but news reports here in canada are now predicting a drop in the canadian dollar relative to the usd over the next six months. a weak usd is very bad for canadian exports.