Another 2500 6h hand vs Colson10

[uclabruinz]

For AJs:

90% of the time we win 250 for +225.
3.3% of the time we win 2200 for +73.
6.7% of the time we lose 2050 for -137.

Net equity about 161.

Now with 65s:

90% of the time we win 250 for +225.
3.1% of the time we win 2200 for +68.
6.9% of the time we lose 2050 for -142.

Net equity is +151.

Difference in equity between AJs and 65s: 10 chips.

My point remains despite my crappy math. The difference between AJs and 65s in this situation is negligible. I still submit that raising 4xBB is more +EV for someone like Carl, but have no idea how I would prove that. At any rate, shoving AJs is definitely not awful, it's good. I just think there is better, and shoving any two here is probably +EV assuming the ranges we put on villain.

[MLG]

ucla,
i honestly think that raising and getting called puts in a really crappy postflop spot that i hate and i really believe it doesnt increase our equity a lot if it all. again the types of assumptions you have to make to do the math on this make it not terribly useful, and kinda complicated to do...so its kind of a feeling thing.

[0evg0]

Haha, didn't realize this was 6-max.

The fact that I call here in FR, pretty much lets you know how easy a call I think this is in 6-max.

[0evg0]

Point is, shoving 20xbb over a limper in 6-max is +cEV with such a huge range (incl a number of hands that are not +cEV open-raising less than all-in) that even though something like AT might me marginal, it's +cEV and so therefore I have to assume Colson is probably perfectly comfortable shoving.

Just because people don't normally shove 20xbb over a limper (because there are usually slightly better options like raise/calling or raise/folding), doesn't mean there aren't a TON of hands that it's still fine with (and plenty more where it may not be optimal, but Colson has decided that in this specific case an open-shove may be better).

Does this read clearly?

[uclabruinz]

MLG, yeah I have given it some thought and agree. Shoving here is probably best, particularly because seeing a shove out of the blinds would be painful and you are right in that our stacks on the flop if the limper calls are pretty awkward.

EDIT: The lesson for me here, though, is not just that shoving AJs is profitable and probably the best move, but shoving a very wide range is quite profitable as well.

[shaundeeb]

I've started to overlimp more here and if someone raises and limper flat calls I shove/squeeze. My thinking if they are raising behind me and call they prob were calling my shove anyway. AJs plays well multiway and we have enough chips to bet upto 3 streets with FE on all postflop bets.

[colson10]

[ QUOTE ]
I've started to overlimp more here and if someone raises and limper flat calls I shove/squeeze. My thinking if they are raising behind me and call they prob were calling my shove anyway. AJs plays well multiway and we have enough chips to bet upto 3 streets with FE on all postflop bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I like limping more than making a standard raise.

I'm not going to defend my shove, I'm not sure if it's the best play. I felt the limper's range was predominantly suited connectors, maybe some pairs, and some broadway hands. I was very confident he wasn't limping a big hand.

I thought if I raised to 400 the limper would call probably 80-90% of the time. I thought I'd have to raise to 500-600 to get him to fold a good amount of the time. And I felt like if I'm going to stick in that much of my stack I might as well jam. Again, I'm not saying this is the correct play, just my thinking at the time. Like MLG said, if we raise and get called we're put in a nasty spot on the flop.

If I had 1700 or less I'm shoving all day. With 2k I think limping might be best. And maybe shoving over a raise from the blinds depending on my read.

Oh yeah, I think Bond should call with 99. I think he does fine against my range, his biggest worry should be the limper. But he has to use my read, since he just got to the table, that if I'm shoving here I must not think the limper has a big hand.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
For AJs:

90% of the time we win 250 for +225.
3.3% of the time we win 2200 for +73.
6.7% of the time we lose 2050 for -137.

Net equity about 161.

Now with 65s:

90% of the time we win 250 for +225.
3.1% of the time we win 2200 for +68.
6.9% of the time we lose 2050 for -142.

Net equity is +151.

Difference in equity between AJs and 65s: 10 chips.

My point remains despite my crappy math. The difference between AJs and 65s in this situation is negligible. I still submit that raising 4xBB is more +EV for someone like Carl, but have no idea how I would prove that. At any rate, shoving AJs is definitely not awful, it's good. I just think there is better, and shoving any two here is probably +EV assuming the ranges we put on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]


This math simply cannot be correct! You will be called less often with AJs. Also no idea where you came up with the 90% no call number. I think when I ran it it was something around 87% no call with AJs and 84% no call with 65s, but I'm not certain.

[uclabruinz]

Post deleted by uclabruinz

[curtains]

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