The effectiveness of SNG-W "future games" simulator

[Ace_Ren]

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Yes, but even if I loose the coinflip against the random hand in the BB, I have a dominant stack and will be able to push them around next hand and the next, just as if I had folded.

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Looking at the first example again, I think the biggest issue is the Metro's calling range. 100%. There is no guarantee that the other 2 are at 100%. Nemo almost certainly isn't. Blue_lino might not be either. When Metro calls 100%, he's taking a chunk out of your EV (still positive though) and his own and giving it straight to the other two. It's better for you when he folds many hands. I would suspect that if you adjusted his calling range to 70% or down to 30%, the system would come back as a push.

However, what you're saying is exactly what the program is saying. Whatever you decide to do, your EV will be positive and approximately the same because you can either push now and keep on pushing later. Or you can wait this one out and keep pushing later in slightly better spots.

I would personally advocate pushing now in this situation against the recommendation of the program. The difference is 0.02% and both are positive. Take the sure thing, pushing, and don't rely on the numerous assumptions that give you a 0.02% better EV.