Moving up to NL25 - memo to self

GrumpyB · #1 10-22-2007, 08:15 AM

I have recently moved up from NL10 to NL25, and while I was a winner at NL10 (over 20,000 hands) and started off well at NL25, my figures have just taken a dive into negative territory following 5 straight loosing sessions – an indignity that I never had to suffer at NL10.

No, this isn’t another bankroll question, I’m well enough funded for NL25, but that's never going to help if I turn out a loser at NL25.

I have considered moving back down to NL10, and I may still do so (if nothing else, just to get my confidence back) but I’d like to stick it out at NL25 just a little bit longer as I think the softer NL10 games have given me some bad habits. And therefore this is largely a memo to myself, that I am really only posting here as I am then much more likely to listen to that small voice at the back of my head whispering "you really don't want to do that" just as I click the 'call' button like a raging bull. And then again, maybe I've got it all wrong and someone with more experience has some more sound advice.

So my story is, that after checking my history (I don’t have Poker Tracker, it is not supported on the site I play) the big difference between my NL10 history and my NL25 history is that I am making a lot less on the hands I win and loosing a lot more on the hands I lose.[Wow, there’s a surprises!]

Typically hands look something like this …..

PRE-FLOP I get a premium hand (JJ+, AK, AQs) and open with a 4-5bb bet in EP, or raise 3-4 plus 1 per limper in LP.

Typical NL10 game: 2 or 3 callers

Typical NL25 game: 1 or 2 callers

FLOP Good news: My hand is good. I hit an A or a K/Q with my AK, AQ, or my JJ+ still looks good.

Bad news: Flop is draw heavy.

I stick in a decent raise (three-quarter pot or so) to deny any drawing hands correct pot odds.

Typical NL10 game: 1 or 2 callers

Typical NL25 game: 80% no callers, 20% 1 caller

[Note: Just like 87.378% of all statistics on the internet these figures have been plucked right out of the air – but they feel just about right].

TURN Looks safe, my hand should still be good but I still don’t want to give away a free card, so another three-quarter pot raise.

Typical NL10 game: two callers down to one, or one caller sticks around

Typical NL25 game: caller sticks around

RIVER Unless I get a monster card (to make a full house, for example) I really don’t want to commit any more money into this pot, so I’ll just check and probably call a 10-20% raise. I’d like to think hard before I decide what to do in the face of a bigger raise, but it may be too late – I may already be pot committed.

Typical NL10 game: villain shows down suited A-rag and was chasing a flush, lower pair and was praying for a set, etc. Occasionally (but not often) he really did have a hand.

Typical NL25 game: villain had suited connectors that made two pair on the flop, or a pair that flopped a set.

RESULT

In a NL10 game draw-chasers pay off my premium hands big time!

In a NL25 game 80% of my premium hands get paid off post flop with a pot of 10-18 bb (I win 6-10bb). The rest of the time the pot gets inflated and I frequently end up committing all my chips. OK, I don’t loose EVERY showdown, but most (90%), so the EV looks something like:

EV = 0.8(+8) + 0.2((0.9(-100))+((0.1(+100))) = 5.2 + 0.2(-80) = -10.8

CONCLUSION

OK, as I said at the beginning, this is largely just a memo to myself which I’m sure is really “Doh, well like obviously” to all you experienced players, but which I hope will serve as a reminder to myself to give *some* NL25 player who calls a near pot-sized bet a lot more respects than *most* NL10 player. They really could have my overpair or TPTK beat.

Thank-you for your patience.