Dumb question about extracting value

[Requin]

How bout you give him two random jacks instead of one with a heart.

[HustlerLA]

[ QUOTE ]


Board: 5h 9s 8h
Hand 0: 67.121% 66.36% 00.76% 657 7.50 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 32.879% 32.12% 00.76% 318 7.50 { JdJh }

$430 > (67% of 1156) - (33% of 1156)



[/ QUOTE ]

This Math is an okay estimate, but if you just smooth call and a 5 comes on the turn, then you wont be putting in any more money if you put villian on OP, right? Also, if 8 or 9 comes on the turn, you have much higher equity. And if an overcard to to his overpair comes you may not be able to get your money in. You are assuming that you will want to and that villian will want to get allin on the turn. All these if's make a shove or at least some type of raise the way to go imo here on the flop.

[JEFF or DAD]

lol the pots a lot bigger if u shove and he calls than ~1100

u cant use ~1100 as the number when u shove and he calls, and ~430 as the number when u shove and he folds

lol

[DJ Sensei]

shove here to represent a draw and get called by more overpairs, or to make it really pricey for him to call with a draw himself

only reason to make a smaller shove is to level him into thinking you have a draw, and that'd take a lot of hands against the dude where similar situations played out and were showed down.

[jalexand42]

Okay, I'll be nice:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.813% 68.03% 00.78% 4041 46.50 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 31.187% 30.40% 00.78% 1806 46.50 { JJ }


Folds, you win $430.

You shove, he calls, 68% of the time you win $430 in pot + $851 in his stack = +$871
You shove, he calls, 30% of the time you lose $1041 more. = $312

This ignores ties, because i'm lazy, but that's also additional EV for you.

Shoving EV = $871-312 = $559.


You do not want an overpair to fold.

[wpr101]

Shoving here looks good because it reps the draw way more than a minraise does.

[tcorbin16]

you fold because you lose to 67.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
All these if's make a shove or at least some type of raise the way to go imo here on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, obviously I'm going to raise, that's not the question. The question is two-pronged, and goes like this: 1) How does raising to 590 versus 1190 - or, for that matter, the timing of my raise - affect villain's likelihood of getting it in on this flop? 2) Assuming I can affect villain's behavior, which would I prefer he do?

With regards to #1, I would have thought shoving ends the hand right now more often, while a small raise entices villain to continue or play back at me more often. But everyone seems to think the opposite: shoving looks weaker than a small raise, so I guess I was wrong. (BTW, if I insta-shove, does that change your answer?)

With regard to #2, from jalex's post, it looks like I was also wrong about preferring to end the hand now. I should have worked that out more thoroughly before posting; I'm embarrassed to present such sloppy math. I do think my point becomes valid at some stack size, but it's probably around 80bb deep, not here.

Anyway, I insta-shoved and he insta-folded, so he probably had AK/AQ.

[DJ Sensei]

If you were close on the line between wanting JJ to call or fold, i'd almost always err on the side of playing for stacks. if he loses a stack he's more likely to play poorly, and if he gets there and wins one, well, whatever. you should be able to control tilt better than he can.

as for timing, i'd probably not instashove but take a second or so to do it. dont think too long though, cause tanking and then shoving tends to look strong.

[Lattakikk]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'll be nice:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.813% 68.03% 00.78% 4041 46.50 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 31.187% 30.40% 00.78% 1806 46.50 { JJ }


Folds, you win $430.

You shove, he calls, 68% of the time you win $430 in pot + $851 in his stack = +$871
You shove, he calls, 30% of the time you lose $1041 more. = $312

This ignores ties, because i'm lazy, but that's also additional EV for you.

Shoving EV = $871-312 = $559.


You do not want an overpair to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]