Quick guide to satellite qualifying for big events

[adanthar]

I don't pretend to know everything about sats, but they are my strongest game, and I've made bankrolls from scratch on 4 separate sites solely through qualifying for big ticket stuff or taking the money very cheaply. I am gonna make some fairly big assertions here that I don't want to take the time to/sometimes can't prove, but believe to be right:

-When you understand how the mid and late game in a multiple seat awarding satellite works, your edge is *far* greater than in a sat which only awards one seat [I think this has to do with LAG's and calling stations accidentally playing correctly more often in the latter];
-Your $/hour is far higher in events with bigger buyins that take less time (duh), and, less obviously, award more seats;
-As a minor aside, if you are trying to qualify for something *very* cheaply or build a bankroll, the Party Steps (especially miniSteps) are your friend, much more than you would possibly expect*;
-Related to the first point, your edge in a sat that pays multiple seats over a bad player is exponentially greater than normal. However, the corollary is that a great player has a bigger than normal edge over you. [The specific edge is related to having the table covered in the midgame and open pushing/calling pushes in the endgame.]

[*I am open to a $1000 or more wager that I can make it from a miniStep 1 (5+1) to a miniStep 5 (400+30) playing on $30 or less. I'd make it less than that but I've gotta leave room for aces getting cracked. Of course, this blatantly ignores $/hour.]

Having gone through the random assertions, here's some conclusions that you can draw from them:

1)Satellites are a lot more valuable when they pay lots of seats, don't take very long and have lots of dead money. The Stars turbo rebuys are probably the best sats in online poker.
2)Conversely, sats that pay one seat either reward SNG players over MTT players, are just plain bad value, or both, due to the decreased edge you have over the field and the decreased value of a large stack/proper pushbotting. The Stars regular 33r (which has 400+ players and pays out 1 trip) downright blows.
2.5)Special case: due to the way that good players filter to the top and are then pitted against each other, the double shootouts are horrible and should be avoided at all costs. I firmly believe only the top 8-10 people in a given shootout have any edge at all, and you have a much lower chance than usual of being in that 10. [This is kinda like the Steps, but not really, because in a Step situation you can get into a 430 SNG that pays 5 spots for $30. In a DS you are paying $175 for, at best, around a 17% chance of playing in a $1500 SNG that only pays one spot and will have The Shrike and four other equally skilled guys in it. That deal sucks.]
3)I dunno, I said this guide would be quick so insert your own conclusions here. I'll just close it out with this: if I was offered a choice between a 1000 player field that paid out 100 seats and a 10 player field that paid one, I would pay three times the vig to play in the first one. Yes, I honestly think the difference is that great.

[mikeymer]

I'm interested to see what you have to say about late game MTT strategy in a satellite such as the 640 satellite to Atlantis... When I was in this tournament, 11 seats payed and I was 4th in chips with 18 to go.

Could I fold out here? I played pretty weak, but DIDNT fold out and lost chips, and eventually lost the seat... I didn't have a good strategy for this stage of the game.

Any insight would be appreciated, thanks -Mike

[adanthar]

That one is impossible to answer without exact stacks. One thing about playing sats correctly is that when the bubble approaches, you must know the exact stacks, blind positions and tendencies of every player at all times.

Aside from that, there are times when if the guy to your left is playing correctly, you will get free chips no matter what he has. You should use those times liberally, because they are literally the difference between winning and losing very very often. Of course, if he's a donk, he might eventually call with KJo for 2/3 of his stack; like I said, know the tendencies.

In general, though, if you're 4'th with 18 to go, stacks are deep (>15 BB average or so) and you lose the seat, something went very wrong.

[VinnyTheFish]

[ QUOTE ]
Aside from that, there are times when if the guy to your left is playing correctly, you will get free chips no matter what he has. You should use those times liberally, because they are literally the difference between winning and losing very very often. Of course, if he's a donk, he might eventually call with KJo for 2/3 of his stack; like I said, know the tendencies.

In general, though, if you're 4'th with 18 to go, stacks are deep (>15 BB average or so) and you lose the seat, something went very wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed - I stay low, play my EV+ hands my EV+ situation. The every popular blind steal that will not cripple me. I attack the small stacks (that will not cripple me).

As for attacking the large stack ... that always seems to hurt me. Maybe because I have lacked the confidence to attack him properly.

For example, BB is chip leader and I am 16th, (18 left, 15 paid). I have ATo on the button. Assuming I can coast for a while 16th and I am not stack < 10 x BB - I fold 8 out of 10 times here. The other 2 times, I'd raise 2.5 and 3.5 times the BB. Pushing here, IMO, is out of the question. Others love to push here.

One thing I have taken to heart - after the 1st break until bubble time - I will calculate the mean chips needed to be a qualifier.

i.e. 1000 Entries, 100 get in. No-rebuy, everyone starts with T1500. total chips = 1,500,000. Mean chip count when 100 are left = 15,000. Now, you and both know that a chip leader or a few more are going to have the majority of the chips.

Therefore, when I hit a certain count, say 30K, I will cruise, and really just watch people drop. Seeing less than 10% of any flops.

Even better, Chip leader and #2 in chips now have 200,000 of that 1.5 million. I keep an eye on them. Are they sitting out? Yes? GREAT! Now you have 1,300,000 chips for 98 people. Brings your mean down to ~13,300. You can sit pretty at 20K, even 17K

Those chips are dead. Are they attacking? Ok, stay at that 25-30K goal, 15K+ is good, but under 10K, we may need to attack a bit and find our EV+ plays.


If you can sit for two hours and make money by not working ... you would do so right!?

Let me put it this way. You and Donk1 have 7,000 in chips. You are in 16th and 17th place out of 17 left. 16 get paid. Blinds are 1000 & 2000 (no ante to keep it easy).

1) You look at position? Who has to act first - assuming you both fold out, no one else leaves the tourn ... who would be standing?

2) You need to Push EV+ hands until you have enough chips to let someone else be the ginny pig.

3) Do not challenge the larger stack. Whoa - YES - I said it. Here's my thinking -- I have 7K, Seat 1 has 100K - he can lost that 7K and than another 14K to me and still go to bed gaining a seat. He will call you with anything from K2o to 22, to 56s!? Yes! On the other hand, Seat K, has 21 in chips, taking 7K from him puts him into defensive mode. He will not call unless he has those top few EV+ hands, you know um, AA, KK, etc.

But, I have found that having a chip goal in the above the mean keeps me quiet and I avoid unneeded gambles.

Ego is out the window!!!

[trentk268]

I've noticed the same thing. I play Poker Stars and Empire; the SNGs are Ok and I play OK in them (in the money about 40% of the time) but I fare far better in Low tournament with modest buyins (I'm working my way up) where the top 200 or so get paid off.

I think that the high number of LAGs and donks contributes to success for tighter players, without pitting too many TAGs and sharks versus each other.

[Exitonly]

I really wish i had read this, before blowing 3k in doubleshootouts... at first i thought the looked like a good value, but the variancec is huge, and the 2nd table you play at, is not an easy one. The saturday deal is sooooo much better.


And i just started playing the mini-steps, so glad to read that you think they're not that hard.

Good little summary, Thanks.

[LethalRose]

What about this structure

18 players, 1st place gets seat, 2nd gets buyin + a few bucks, 3rd gets buyin back. This is a stars mtt, normal levels.

[adanthar]

I have not played those but would suspect that unless the people in that tournament really really wanted their buyins back, your edge would be greater elsewhere.

[Marwan]

Thanks for the advice...so I'm basically wasting my time trying to qualify to Atlantis through the 3R? That one only gives away like 2-3 seats for a 150-200 person field.. but if you win that you have a legit shot to win a seat in the 615 event (at least top 10 pay).. while the 5.50R to the DS gives away like 20+ usually, but gives you entrance to an event where there's only one winner.. catch-22.

[adanthar]

What I would do myself is play the 5.50r, take the 175 T$ if you win and use it on two tries at the $80 sats to the 650, which pay 1/8. Assuming you are average in the $80's, you will be better off here than in the 3r's, not counting $/hour (which is like a billion times higher going through the 5.50's.)