50NL - Overpair on paired board facing a raise, call or shove

[scallop]

Because you are not calling here out of worry that we are behind, right ?

[whyzze]

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Because you are not calling here out of worry that we are behind, right ?

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lol. We want the money in. If we are willing to put it in on the flop then we would increase our EV by waiting for the turn.

[scallop]

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Because you are not calling here out of worry that we are behind, right ?

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lol. We want the money in. If we are willing to put it in on the flop then we would increase our EV by waiting for the turn.

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I doubt that he is double barrelling you with Air here very often.

That said, I can't see many hands with the exception of Air hands with an Ace that you are worried about drawing out on you on the turn.

Thinking about it even more, If this guy rarely double-barrel bluffs, then if he bets the turn are we still happy about our hand. What range do you put him on which would c/r flop and bet turn.

[Perk76]

Air wont call a shove at this point.

I like the check and get it in on any turn. It gives him an opportunity to bluff if bluffing, and most likely will still continue with the overpairs and even midpairs (since CO can be making a stand here with them putting you on overs), and obviously your getting sacked if he has a 9/AA anyways.

[scallop]

Ok, so on the turn if he bets we push regadless of turn. What if its an Ace. What if it a 4?

I think if you call turn, you are doing so because you believe he has c/r with air or a 4. Air is a much larger part of his range, so are we calling or pushing over all turn bets?

[NL Newbie]

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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Villain is 49/16/1.8 over 500+ hands
I should be something like 20/15/2.6 to him

Hero ($70.65)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($265.10)
UTG ($109.60)
MP ($51.65)
CO ($51.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($7.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5.5</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $20</font>, Hero ...

Shove now or call and shove turn (reevaluate on an A). I figured I'm way ahead of his range as I've seen him overplay overpairs in these situations. He's also capable of doing it with air, too.
I'm thinking he will call with QQ/JJ and anything that beats me and probably fold TT.
I think if I call and shove turn he might call with TT and maybe even with 88/77 feeling commited.
Only problem is an A on the turn but it's both unlikely and unlikely to help him.
I actually think he'll fold everything I beat either way because the limp/call is probably not a pair strong enough to call here if beat.

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This is a grunch

Good post OP, i like when OPs make effort! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I like calling here, to make TT go broke. However we've got to dodge A/K/Q/J/T assuming he had TT thats 4/2/4/4/2 = 16 cards so it's going to hit around 1/3rd time.

He's put in quite a large raise, just noticed its a check raise which is pretty scary.

Alot of 9x combos, in comparison to the TT/JJ/QQ combos also.

Infact, wow i just looked at this guys stats - 40/16 he never has QQ/JJ./TT here IMO.

We're screwed, OP fold and if he has TT good game.

TT/JJ = 12 ways.
T9 alone = 16 ways.

Fold.

Calling would maxamise ev if you think his range differs.

[scallop]

You really think he limps from c/o w TT+?

Sorry maybe I dont understand your post, but are you saying folding? Because his c/r = 9x?

[sharky01]

Does anyone not think that shoving the flop gets him to fold worse hands and call with pretty much only the hands that beat us? I see people doing this with 77,88 etc quite a lot here figuring OP for AK. I think you are way ahead of his range so this is about maximising value from the hands you are head of. In order to do that calling here and letting him hang himself on the turn is best imo.

[Perk76]

Scallop,

I think that if you flat call the flop bet, stack sizes allow for a call/push on turn regardless. I think you have to go with any turn regardless if its an A. Ace would probably be a good card since this person raises 16% of the hands which would have to include alot of ace combos.

[NL Newbie]

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You really think he limps from c/o w TT+?

Sorry maybe I dont understand your post, but are you saying folding? Because his c/r = 9x?

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Read the whole post again, its all there - My flowing thoughts, in order without reading responses.