How fast can a civilization evolve?

[popeye18]

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They would all die within 50 years, probably a lot sooner.

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I was just thinking about this. The chances of them all dieing off is proabably somewhat significant.

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I might be thinking too highly of them, but thinking that lacking "basics" like paper would take any time at all to overcome is severely underestimating our best and brightest.

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I used the paper idea as a kind of metaphor. They are starting with completely raw materials in the ground. other examples... How long is it going to take them to have the machinery to dig for oil/natural gas when they have no fuels? How long is it going to take them to mine iron succesfully when they dont have steel?

[luckyme]

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You obviously think that I'm overestimating the intelligence of the 10,000 smartest people in the world. I think you're underestimating it.

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And by quite a lot. If we're using 'smart' as very intelligent and very knowledgeable then what they are capable of is amazing. Most people haven't had prolonged (any?) contact with anyone that would fit that 10,000 and perhaps are confusing them with the smartest million or so of which they may have met one briefly.

The amount of knowledge that some exhibit is astounding.

Here's an example of mere average+ intelligence/knowledge. My great grandfather was tested for mechanics by walking into a room with a tractor disassembled down to the smallest pin in a large messy pile in the middle of the room.
Would the a rocket scientist that is the smartest guy in a million have a problem building a water wheel and then they are off to heavy duty manufacturing.

from the OP-
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(given that all the natural resources are abundant and readily availible and only work and knowlage are required)

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Popeye seems to be skipping that part. You don't need steel to mine for iron. You'd have plenty of fuel to drill for oil, wood burns and steam engines are a no-brainer to build. Splitting up into specialized teams would compound the speed of advancement.

2-3 generations would span 100 years so they wouldn't have bred down to dumb yet, but hopefully they wouldn't recreate a modern USA, the OP said 'smartest', there are no GW's on this island or any member of the senate or congress.

luckyme

[GoodCallYouWin]

"or any member of the senate or congress"

except Ron Paul./

[popeye18]

What do you think the average age of the smartest people in the world is? I might be underestimating their intelligence, but i believe you guys might be underestimating the physical hardhips these people will experience. How long is it going to take to have stable food and water supplies? How long will it take them to produce fertile farming fields and good techniques?

[luckyme]

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"or any member of the senate or congress"

except Ron Paul./

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Ron Paul is one of the top 300 smartest people in the USA? thanks, that explains a lot. I'd have thought one of the top million smartest in the USA would be stretching it.

luckyme

[kerowo]

Would the 10k smarties do better than 10k average folks? Sure, but just because you are smart doesn't mean you can go from pointy sticks and rocks to steam engines overnight. Also, how are they going to share this knowledge with the next generation? A big chunk of being smart is knowing where to find information, when there is no reference materials this becomes more difficult.

[luckyme]

From the OP
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(given that all the natural resources are abundant and readily availible and only work and knowlage are required)

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If they are stranded on Greenland it'll definitely take longer than if they are on the equivalent of a better endowed Hawaii.

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What do you think the average age of the smartest people in the world is?

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Same as the rest of the people .. 30ish.

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How long is it going to take to have stable food and water supplies?

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On a large, well-endowed island with fish-laden waters and forests with streams/rivers animals? Knowing about preservation techniques, nutritional needs, and cultivation skills? think how easy salting fish is, or making pemmican or, or drying or canning ( which doesn't take cans). ( water and fish etc ARE natural resources).
I suspect you're picturing the Sudan or worse.

A water wheel is a huge leg-up working back from what we know now and some metals are easy to produce. Well engineered stone tools can do great things hooked to a source of power.
A book about what dumb homesteaders managed in a few years in much worse settings than this and without the hindsight is a good summer read.

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[Zeno]

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How fast can a civilization evolve?


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A far more interesting question is: given a civilization, how fast can it devolve or desend into choas and nothingness?

Not fast enough is my answer.

Le Misanthrope

[Duke]

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Would the 10k smarties do better than 10k average folks? Sure, but just because you are smart doesn't mean you can go from pointy sticks and rocks to steam engines overnight. Also, how are they going to share this knowledge with the next generation? A big chunk of being smart is knowing where to find information, when there is no reference materials this becomes more difficult.

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I think this would be a good gameshow. Not that junkyard wars [censored], but a full year or something to see how far "smart" people can get given very similar constraints. We'll see things that we never dreamed of, and also not see some things that we figured were important. I don't see the steam engine as being necessary at all as a stage of development. It didn't even last very long.

I figure they could come up with good ways to store and transmit information in the first 5 years.

[kerowo]

I'm assuming starting conditions of basically no tools since none where stipulated. I don't see this turning into a society of Professors from Gilligan's Island very quickly. Sure knowing how to make the tools is a great place to start, but it's still going to take time to create the equivalent of a front loader or other big tools that make things easy now. Most of the time is going to be spent gathering food or looking for plants to cultivate for food, or maybe looking for animals to domesticate to help with the work. Human power is pretty limited.