Another 100nl hand for erryone takin shots at it: AA on monotone flop

[Gelford]

I agree ... but you already knew that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree ... but you already knew that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
yea im wonderin wut matrix thinks... MATRIX respond i die for ur opinion [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Leviathan101]

Hmmm...

I really wish I knew more about the other player. How he plays monsters, and how he reacts to other players.

With the given amount of information I think it probably really is a very close descision. I am a LAG and I can easily see myself making this play with a flush, set or some since I know you're tight, and likely flopped an overpair. From Villian's point of view, this play looks so absurd I probably get calls from overpairs. This deep, I will call your 3 bet with any pocket pair, some SC, maybe Axs, in addition to some more random [censored] tossed in there for suprise value. (get in there T7s)

I think it's really close. I'm not against a call, but I would lay it down. I think if you have an edge, and you probably do, its very small. I fold in protection of my bankroll, but if I had a 100 buy in roll, I'd probably run it. I really want some more info, but if I knew anything else, like he slow plays monster or doesn't overbet with strong hands, makes huge bluffs, or anything, I would lean very much towards a call.
Likewise though, If I have notes that he's a solid LAG, a decent thinking player, or doesn't get out of line, I probably fold it.

So... in a nutshell I fold.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

so in conclusion i decided a call was good here given the board was so sick for a semibluff when i made my bet look like a cbet and the pot was already so big. at the time of the hand bonafone (a ship it holla balla) was sittin next to me and we talked it out and decided it was extremely close but prolly slightly +EV. after the sesh we talked about it a bit more and i now think it is a bit more then slightly +EV and that i have closer to 55-60% equity (based on i really think tha majority of his range was tha A of hearts and also an overpair with a heart) on the flop thus makin it a rather easy call.

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If you work the range out so that you have 55% equity or better - then I agree it is an easy call.

a lot of working out ranges is read based I think. A decent LAG here is pushing with a few hands that have you totally crushed so I think it's within 1 or 2% of 50/50 so even tho it might be correct to call I'd probably fold.

If I was villain and I was in "LAG mode" I'd be pushing here with this range (or close to it)


Board: 9h 8h 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.706% 38.26% 00.44% 17424 202.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 61.294% 60.85% 00.44% 27711 202.50 { KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, 99-88, 33, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, JhTh, 7h6h, 6h5h, AcKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AcQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AcJh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, JcTh, JdTh, JhTc, JhTd, JhTs, JsTh, Th9c, Th9d, Th9s }

which is basically overpair w/ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], set, baby flush w/ suited connector, combo draw, A9hh+, Ah Broadwayx

If you take his range down to overpair with [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], set, Ah+pair/Ah+broadway then it's almost 50/50

Board: 9h 8h 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.172% 48.70% 00.48% 20730 202.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 50.828% 50.35% 00.48% 21435 202.50 { KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, 99-88, 33, AcKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AcQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AcJh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AcTh, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ad8c, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah3c, Ah3d, Ah3s }

it's not until you start adding in hands that have no hearts in them that your equity starts getting to 55/45 in your favour.

from the info in the OP it's hard to imagine this guy pushing 200BB here without a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I'd snap call here with 100BB - I'm calling 200BB all day with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in my hand - with one pair and possibly only a runner runner boat redraw I can hit I'll pass on this thin edge this time. Even tho a call might well be correct these days I like to take a slightly lower variance line where I can.

[munkey]

I assume being 200bbs deep and NL100 ur 3betting each other with a few more Scs and stuff, if you're image is of tight 3betting/history then he knows you hold premiums and isn't afraid to push so probably has u beat.

I say he's made your decision easy somewhat in that he's given you a either/ or scenario rather than multri-street confusionaments.

I fold here, we beat only really higher PPS, though his shove does weight a little towards that with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]- I still think your smoked or vs a draw or at best QQ-AA.

with the ace of hearts I'll be calling and 100bbs I'll be insta calling here but 200bbs deep I'm not for some reason [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

If I had to guess the top hand in his range a hand I'll say KK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] , set, floped SC flush, combodraw , qq, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ko ,AA, PP bluff unlikely.

His open push makes me think he has a made hand + scared flsuh flop or needs FE.

Has he every done any open pushing before, u say he's a reg?

[BobAllinSki]

The thing is when you are ahead you are not ahead by a lot, but when you are behind you are behind by a lot, meaning that you have to be ahead A LOT more than when the times when you are behind, I'd also be dubious about eliminating a flush from his range, most decent lag's dont slowplay very often as they know for there steals to work they need to back it up with the threat of running into a hand, and sometimes a crazy push can be more likely to get paid off than a reasonable raise as people can often get overclever.

if you are 55% then call, I havnt done the analysis, but I wouldnt exclude a flush at all.

[kbrat]

I fold this. With the Ah I call. We are only slightly ahead of his semi bluffs, slightly behind his combo draws and way way behind his made hands. Playing 99 88 or 33(much less likely) this way wouldn't be surprising to attempt to push you off a possible AhKx AhAx or Khkx. Playing a made flush this way isn't as likely but if it isn't the nut flush, say KhTh, it is still possible for the same reason, pushing you off the Ah.

[Asheh]

Always leave urself outs, im calling with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Ax here only

[Tickner]

I'd snap call this. It could easily be the Ah or an overpair. It will also be a set a small % of the time. I havent run any numbers in pokerstove, but I am almost positive that calling is good here. He wont have a flush very often IMO because a flush would much prefer to raise to $80 or so and hope that YOU push.

As matrix said, with the Ah its a super easy call. But, even without it, I'd argue that calling here is the best play.

GELFORD/Martix, I quickly skimmed the posts, and you said that you ran numbers and its 50/50? If thats true, I hope you realize that if it really is 50/50 calling is clearly correct because of the dead money.

[kaz2107]

for all of u asking for more info i pretty much gave u all i had at the time. i dont take super notes and hadnt been in this spot bfore against villian. as i said i had couple hundo hands on him but they had all been from a while ago as i hadnt played in about a week at least and this was my 2nd hand at the table. so i cant really help u much there but so goes poker and we r often not given great reads n e wayz

i think this really comes down to how strongly he plays his made hands. and here is my thinking in regards to this. why on earth would he be shoving 200bbs with a flush here. that seems ludacris to me. we r 200bbs deep thus 3 betting preflop happens in a much wider range (i am assuming he relazes this) as well as the fact that he has been playin laggy thus gets 3 bet lighter again. so he cant put me on a narrow 3 bet range even tho i am sorta nitty. im deffinatly not only 3 betting here with KK+ and my range is much larger then that. obv he doesnt directly kno that but he must realize that it is relatively a wide range. but so why would he think i have such a strong hand in this spot and think that i could call off 200bbs when i havent shown a ton of strength up to this point.

given this idea and tha fact that he is makin such a large over bet here i think i can make one of 2 conclusions for tha most part. A. his hand is rather vulnerable and he thinks he is ahead but has the possability of being draw out on (ie. an overpair, 2 pair a set, or maybe even tha ocassional tp type hand) OR B. that he needs some FE to make his hand more profitable (ie. lone flush draw, weak combo draw, or a complete bluff.) He has to realize that he has a decent amount of FE due to the fact that i have yet to show a ton of strength (all i have done is 3 bet pre and then cbet) so considering how deep we r FE should b rather high as i will make this same 2 actions with much weaker holdings and will b forced to fold a ton to this push.

now i honestly think that those hands i just listed are the majority of his range and a reason why i dont like pokerstove numbers all that much. every possible hand is given an equal value and in this case i dont think that makes much sense as i just dont seem him playin that way with some of the hands listed in his range all that frequently where i see others that i think r much more likely. this is why i think tha range where it is 50/50 is slightly higher because i think tha made flushes arent going to do this all that often thus should b given a lower proportion in this range. i dont think it is all that possible to really make these calculations (altho if some one thinks they can do it go for it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) but i think that common sense tells us that if it is 50/50 while sayin him havin a flush is just as likely as havin a vulnerable hand such as KK no hearts or even sumtin like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or w/e then obv my equity rises.

and last night i was thinkin about tha hand some more and also thought about wut Tickner said about all the dead money in tha pot. this also makes tha call even more profitable (something i didnt even consider all that much at the time of the call) but again if i am 50/50 exactly at the time he shoves it is a clear call since i have already invest a decent amount of money and thus am gettin better then 1:1 odds on the call.