ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60

[tongni]

DUDE YOU HAVE AN OVERPAIR!!!!!

[andyfox]

He has no reason to think you have an overpair.

[andyfox]

I agree against Justin, but this is not necessarily true, especially in Vegas. Many players will fire unimproved high cards on the turn and then check behind on the river. A lot more than will bet them again on the river. So sometimes it may be correct to call a turn bet but fold to a river bet.

[private joker]

Raise the turn. Justin won't 3-bet a worse hand, so you can get away from it then, but he may certainly call you down with A-high. And if you get him to fold hands with 6 outs then that's good too. I don't mind the flop c/c. But raise that turn.

(And don't fold the river -- I've only played with Justin a couple times but I would always see a showdown with an overpair when I got there as cheaply as you did).

[mike l.]

careful justin will value bet AK on the river there. call the river. expect to lose but call the river.

i prefer to limp utg with 99 and 88. a really good pro taught me why this is good in so many ways.

[mike l.]

"how do you ever make this fold?"

im fond of the discipline this fold takes. it's a nuanced play and good way to play this hand against 90% of players or something. just not the best line here.

fwiw the fold is not that bad even though it gives up on the whole pot. justin's range includes a lot of hands that have 99 crushed. a fold is wrong it's just not a disaster. he's going to get shown JJ and QQ a lot here.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
i prefer to limp utg with 99 and 88. a really good pro taught me why this is good in so many ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey mike, i'm really interested in hearing the reasoning behind this as i am used to auto-raising with 99 here and usually 88 as well

[Justin A]

bugstud,

Try to look at this from my point of view. I had just barely found out who you were, and I knew nothing of how you played other than watching you play the previous hour or two. I had noticed that you were raising quite a bit(correctly), so it's not like I put you on a monster and needed a really huge hand to 3bet you with.

So now you just call my 3bet, which doesn't mean that much. The flop is just about as raggy as they get, and you check, and I bet. Now at this point you hesitated for a bit. I know now you were probably thinking about checkraising, but at the time I felt like you had an AJ or KQ type hand that was trying to figure out if you wanted to continue.

So you finally call, and the turn is another low card that puts up a flush draw. So now you check and I bet and you call instantly. So now I'm thinking this is either a picked up flush draw or a hand like AQ that's hoping to see one more card and maybe get a free showdown.

Based on this information, I don't think there are any hands that I could have up to this point that I wouldn't be betting the river with. So in other words my range after the river bet is pretty much the exact same as my range after the preflop 3bet.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
bugstud,

Try to look at this from my point of view. I had just barely found out who you were, and I knew nothing of how you played other than watching you play the previous hour or two. I had noticed that you were raising quite a bit(correctly), so it's not like I put you on a monster and needed a really huge hand to 3bet you with.

So now you just call my 3bet, which doesn't mean that much. The flop is just about as raggy as they get, and you check, and I bet. Now at this point you hesitated for a bit. I know now you were probably thinking about checkraising, but at the time I felt like you had an AJ or KQ type hand that was trying to figure out if you wanted to continue.

So you finally call, and the turn is another low card that puts up a flush draw. So now you check and I bet and you call instantly. So now I'm thinking this is either a picked up flush draw or a hand like AQ that's hoping to see one more card and maybe get a free showdown.

Based on this information, I don't think there are any hands that I could have up to this point that I wouldn't be betting the river with. So in other words my range after the river bet is pretty much the exact same as my range after the preflop 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly can agree with this now, but wasn't thinking that your turn and river ranges wouldn't change at the table.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
"how do you ever make this fold?"

im fond of the discipline this fold takes. it's a nuanced play and good way to play this hand against 90% of players or something. just not the best line here. It's a $100 misplay.

fwiw the fold is not that bad even though it gives up on the whole pot. justin's range includes a lot of hands that have 99 crushed. a fold is wrong it's just not a disaster. he's going to get shown JJ and QQ a lot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how this can't be characterized as a huge mistake. The pot is, what, 7-8 bets at that point, and probably 30-40% of that belongs to bugstud if he redeems his 1 BB coupon for it.