pair + draw vs spewtard

[SlowHabit]

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I'm not HSNL but quick thought. Equity is awesome vs his range and usually w/ 10 outs its OMG jam but only a hand like this doing a crai quick math says he needs to fold ~30% of the time to make it correct. I doubt for a guy that has never 3bet yet AK makes up a third of his range and hes prob never folding JJ+.

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Can you show the math where he has to fold more than 30%?

I got a number much smaller than this.