Set mining against short stacks.

[lengthy]

I was wanting to know what everyones thoughts on set mining against short stacks is. A friend and I had a conversation about this last night and he feels that it is profitable to call a raise/reraise from a someone who has 50bb stack.

I personally will not call a reraise with a small pp unless the person has about 130 bb in their stack and I feel that they are going to stack off with an overpair/top pair more often then not.

So what is the most +ev play?
How much should villians stack be for calling a three bet to try to hit your set?


For the sake of arguement the game is going to be .10-.25 NL game. And all the players are going to be of average skill for this level. Hero is assumed to have a full 100bb buy in also.

All comments are appreciated.

[tarheeljks]

if you are playing a pp against a short stack it is not for set value.

[cynic757]

The bet size's relation to the raiser's stack matters significantly. I go with the 10 to 1 rule for set mining if I know little about the player.

I.E. The stakes you mentioned. I open with 9's in MP for $1, the button raises to $4 and the blinds fold. Knowing my opponent will stack off with an overpair pair would be especially helpful information here since I'm out of position, but in this situation I'd usually call if the raiser has at least $25 left. I have to call $3 to win ~$30, which is 10 to 1 and I flop a set about 7.5 to 1 on the flop.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
I go with the 10 to 1 rule for set mining [...] I have to call $3 to win ~$30, which is 10 to 1 and I flop a set about 7.5 to 1 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

More if the person is playing proper shortstack strategy and is generally tight. Also remember that hands like JJ, TT may not stack off with overcards on the flop, the same if AK or AQ misses.

If you're going to play 99 exclusively for set value against a shortstack OOP (which I don't really like doing to be honest), you're going to need a little more than 10-to-1. With JJ or even AQ you don't have to worry about overs as much.

You certainly don't have to have 150bb behind for this to be profitable though. Also, keep in mind that raising and then calling a 3-bet OOP usually indicates a pair - esp to better players, who may not be apt to give you the payday you're looking for with an overpair of TPTK with AQ or whatever.

[cynic757]

I agree with you for the most part, Gonso, but also take note that he's talking about 25NL. The vast majority of players at this stake are going to stack off with TPTK or an overpair.

At this stake I think 10 - 1 is fine, but OP should certainly be very aware of what you said about raising and calling a 3-bet OOP indicating a pair.

[JOHNY CA$H]

If I can be fairly certain I can make +10x my initial investment, I'm game. Many times a short stack will get it all in on the flop, almost always if they have an over pair/flop top pr. And sometimes, you can get it all in without flopping a set, if you think they missed.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you for the most part, Gonso, but also take note that he's talking about 25NL. The vast majority of players at this stake are going to stack off with TPTK or an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying they aren't. However, they're also not going to make TPTK or have an overpair every time you've made your set. These guys will be sitting there with smaller pairs, miss with AQ, and so on.

Also, you have take into consideration that even when you make your set, you could find the guy willing to stack off with a good draw semi-bluffing or whatever. Making a set and getting him all in doesn't mean you automatically get the pot.

So, say you're set mining and your pocket pairs are flopping sets with the normal frequency (1 in 8.5 tries). Each time it works out so that you call a $3 preflop bet and the effective stack sizes after that are $30, so you're getting that 10-to-1, just number you're looking for. Let's also assume that he'll stack off with TPTK or better, although it certainly isn't automatic.

Let's say you hold the two black 7s and the flop comes Kh 3c 7h. Great for you, but does he have a hand you can felt him with often enough? Also, could he still have enough equity to deny to the odds you need with certain hands?

Look at some possibilities:

1. If he has AK or AA, sure. You're so far ahead this won't affect your numbers much.

2. He could have 33 for a lower set, but this is reasonably negated by the possibility he has a set of kings so this one is really nuetral.

3. What about a flush draw? If he semi-bluffs with JhTh here, you're still a favorite, but he still has more than 25% equity in the pot.

This is a pretty safe flop for you in this example, and I did it that way on purpose. However, are going to be a lot of others that are not when you flop a set. Sometimes it will be two pair, combo draws, an overpair + a draw.

I'm not saying you should worry about three-flushes or possible straights when shortstacked and holding middle set. What I am saying is that in many cases when they are willing to stack off, they may have do so with hands with enough equity to make your 10-to-1 figure unprofitable.

So there's a lot of things that have to go your way. You need the guy to stack off everytime and have less than 15% equity just to break even. Then, what about the times where you'll call the $3 and have to fold to a raiser acting after you?

Again, we're talking about playing these pairs exclusively for set value against shortstacks. This is why I like more than 10-to-1.

[ QUOTE ]
If I can be fairly certain I can make +10x my initial investment

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. Obviously, if you knew for certain that flopping a set would net you even 9x your initial investment, it would be profitable to call every time.

My whole point is that playing small pairs for set value, against a guy who can give you 10-to-1 at most, is kind of weak. Play your pair for value if you think it's good, or just let it go otherwise. Plus, you could call a raise and have to muck it to raiser acting after you.

[cynic757]

Good post.

I'm interested, under what circumstances are you willing to set mine OOP?

[tarheeljks]

you need to be up against someone who will almost always pay you off when you hit. this could be a player who can't lay down overpairs or a lag who will felt any draw.

[Gonso]

Right, that's what I mean - and honestly even under those circumstances I'm still not sure 10-to-1 is enough.

I usually let the smaller pairs go in the UTG spots if I'm playing full ring (at least in most games I play in), but from other positions or 6-max I'd open raise. Then, if a shortstack with the kind of chips were talking about re-pops me, I have a little more to work with.

Right away, I try to re-evaluate where I might be at depending on the player, and what I think is general range is to 3-bet me here. If I think there's a reasonable chance I'm not against a higher pair (say if this guy might be 3-betting a little light from the button with KJ type hands), I could 4-bet a lot of opponents. At the same time I could just fold against players if my pair is too small and they can play smaller pots with fair hands.

To just call a 3-bet with a small PP OOP against most shortstacked opponents (if no one else is in the pot), I'd have to think that I'm likely to be behind. [Plus, most people with read this as a pair or something like AQs.] In my case, I will often call here HU with a top pair also, which helps me in these hands a little.

Anyway, if I had a number I'd say 14x or so. More or less depending. If he's tilty or aggro post flop, then a little less will usually do. If he's a smallball player and plays well, maybe even more would be required.

If I wasn't reasonably sure I was behind a higher pair and just called preflop, then obviously you can reevaluate on the flop. You're going to be looking at overcards almost every time, and to a large part you're going to have to try and sort out what his range looks like against the board out of position, which is tricky (at least for me).

If you have 77 and the flop comes A85, is the ace a good card for you to bluff or not against this guy?