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#1
06-21-2007, 04:14 PM
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variance for 6 max nl?
Ive never really heard this discussed before. Ive been playing 50 nl for awhile, going up and down up and down. for the past two days ive won 11 buy ins, and today i just dropped 3 all on ridiculous stuff. I know nl has lower variance than other forms of poker, im just curious what kind of swings you guys have gone through. And whats normal?
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#2
06-21-2007, 04:28 PM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
 I love variance, I really do.
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#3
06-21-2007, 04:47 PM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
[ QUOTE ]
I know nl has lower variance than other forms of poker, im just curious what kind of swings you guys have gone through [/ QUOTE ] The 'lower variance' idea in NL relies on a big comparative advantage (ie you can beat them for more and push the ratio between expectation and variance in your favour) I dropped ten buyins at NL50 6-max in three days (and I have no history in that game to speak of, so can't call it a downswing yet [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) and it didn't feel especially weird or improbable. Had that been half my roll I would have been pretty worried though. If you think it's not really been discussed before try the cheese threads in the NL forums (they are usually on the front page) and you get a good idea of what can happen.
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#4
06-21-2007, 05:09 PM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
I haven't seen specific information for SHNL, but you can try searching for posts by pzhon with keywords like 'deviation', 'variance', and 'NL'. He really knows this stuff. For example:
[ QUOTE ] More common is to have a standard deviation of about 4/5 of a buy-in to 1 buy-in every 100 hands in a full ring table, and higher in 6-max or if you have a loose-aggressive playing style. [/ QUOTE ]
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#5
06-21-2007, 05:27 PM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't seen specific information for SHNL, but you can try searching for posts by pzhon with keywords like 'deviation', 'variance', and 'NL'. He really knows this stuff. For example: [ QUOTE ] More common is to have a standard deviation of about 4/5 of a buy-in to 1 buy-in every 100 hands in a full ring table, and higher in 6-max or if you have a loose-aggressive playing style. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] So in this example variance can be 10x your winrate. 15x is often qutoed for LHE (always depends, of course). So while this is "less" variance than limit, clearly its still a lot. Learn to love it. I'm serious.
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#6
06-21-2007, 07:40 PM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
[ QUOTE ]
I love variance, I really do. [/ QUOTE ] No offense meant, but I would suggest dropping down. If all you are winning over 17k hands is .15bb/100 I dont think its varience. Im not sure your a winning player at your limits and should drop down untill you plug your leaks.
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#8
06-22-2007, 01:34 AM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
Keep in mind higher variance corresponds to your edge in your poker game.
If you are grinding out 2bb/100, you're going to have a LOT more ups and downs (and terribly long breakeven stretches) than a guy who is crushing a game for 12bb/100.
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#9
06-22-2007, 03:19 AM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
[ QUOTE ]
Biggest downswing I have had is around 10 buyins over 20k hands. [/ QUOTE ] really?? all jokes aside, im good enough to be beating 50nl. i just had a sick 11 buy in up swing. and than dropped like 5 on really [censored] spots, and bad beats. its just ridiculous
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#10
06-22-2007, 06:14 AM
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Re: variance for 6 max nl?
[ QUOTE ]
No offense meant, but I would suggest dropping down. If all you are winning over 17k hands is .15bb/100 I dont think its varience. Im not sure your a winning player at your limits and should drop down untill you plug your leaks. [/ QUOTE ] None taken, and I'm not a winning player. These are my first 17k hands ever, and I already play at the lowest limits. But even if I'm playing breakeven for the moment I am still up $200, I love bonuses/rakeback!
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