stat thing

[vmacosta]

Just curious if Stox's 35% equity rule for defending the BB is correct. So:

1. go into PT,
2. filter for 3-10 handed,
3. blind status = BB,
4. steal attempted = called/reraised a steal hu.
5. write down all hands that fall between -.4 and -.6 bb/hand.
6. Check their equity vs. top 40% and top 35% of hands in pokerstove.
7. Take the median value (not the average) to be roughly the cutoff point.
8. Post what you find here.

I'm working on this right now.

[vmacosta]

i just did this and i am getting 35% median equity for a steal range of top 40% and 34% median equity for a steal range of top 35%.

No matter what I do--even if I do weighting by hand frequency, filtering for 5/10+, particular sites, etc. I always seem to fall in 33-36% median equity range.

[rzk]

wait, i think you have to design this test much more carefully or you won't get anything reliable out of it.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
wait, i think you have to design this test much more carefully or you won't get anything reliable out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. here is a better way:
Assume the average stealer has {top 35%}. Then the following hands have 34-36% equity vs. this range:

65o
76o
86o
87o
97o
t7o
j8o
j7o
q4o
q5o
q6o
j2s
j3s
t2s
t3s
t4s
t5s
94s
95s
84s
74s
73s
63s
53s
52s
43s
42s


So apply the same filters as in OP and simply look up # hands and BB won. Then average each column seperately and calculate WR. If it is > -.5 BB then we should try this for hands that have 32-34% equity vs. {top 35%}, etc. until we find the approximae correct rule of thumb.

I am working on this right now...

[thorleif]

this thread has exciting implications

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
this thread has exciting implications

[/ QUOTE ]

hehe, yeah right, is that why it's already on page 2?

[Tryptamean]

heh, you and rzk seem to be the stat freaks around here... I'm still just sifting through hands where I do retarded [censored]

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
heh, you and rzk seem to be the "immediately improving our winrate by a few tenths of BB/100 by spending only a half-hour" freaks around here...

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still just sifting through hands where I do retarded [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]
I've given up on eliminating retarded [censored] from my game. I just try to compensate in other ways.

Seriously, though, this won't take very long and I think you will be surprised by the results (hint: you might want to break up the range I gave into subcategories).