UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79

[MikeyPatriot]

I'd be very very happy with a Machida/Rampage fight.

[igetbadbeat]

Afterthoughts minus hindsight bias

32501 MICHAEL BISPING +215
32502 RASHAD EVANS -275

This was an ultracompetitive fight but realistically how often does Bisping actually win? 50/50 is unlikely and 45/55 is still probably a stretch. All in all there was def value on Bisping, but I would say it was a light bet. I see no value in Rashad at available lines before or after.

8:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32503 THIAGO SILVA +125
32504 HOUSTON ALEXANDER -155

This was a medium money bet in retrospect. I originally recommended Thiago to many of my friends for the same reason viscant did, but switched my stance due to the hype and performify's recommendation. This was the fight many of us bettors were expecting to happen last time vs Alessio Sakara...that is a sloppy powerhouse get technically exploited. I think there was def value in a Thiago bet, but I wouldn't have gone heavy. Houston is still one of the strongest and hardest pucnher @ 205 and the fight certainly could have gone different.

7:45 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32505 JOE DOERKSEN +120
32506 ED HERMAN -150

This line also seemed fairly well set. I think most of us agreed doerksen woulda been a great bet had he had a full training camp.

7:25 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32507 RYO CHONAN +275
32508 KARO PARISYAN -345

Karo came out looking horrible and still Ryo could do nothing. I don't like betting heavy favorites, but .6u on karo might have been the right play imo.

7:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32509 SPENCER FISHER -115
32510 FRANK EDGAR -115

This bet was HUGE value. Fisher didnt' stand a chance. His chances of winning were the odds of landing a flying knee. Fisher may have lighting quick hands and combos, but he doesn't have massive KO power so even a flash KO wasn't likely.

5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32511 CHRIS LYTLE +150
32512 THIAGO ALVES -180

On the fence on this one. Line seems somewhat well set, I'm happy with my action bet on Alves, but I think there was small value in lytle when he blipped up around +170. Wish we saw a 3rd round.

5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32513 JASON REINHARDT +450
32514 JOE LAUZON -600

I still dont't hink I coulda touched this line.

5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32515 LUKE CAUDILLO +350
32516 MARCUS AURELIO -450

Seemed pretty well set. I dont' think Aurelio is gonna cut it in the ufc.

5:00 PM11 /17 /07# Money Line
32517 TAMDAN MCCRORY +215
32518 AKIHIRO GONO -275

Small-to medium value on Mccory imo. AWESOME fight too.