A TRIPLE BARREL BLUFF - Page 3

Bad Beat Maker · #21 10-04-2007, 08:14 PM

Terp, clearly your thought process is far too high for some reading this thread. I like your line.

Guys, terp got a read on extreme weakness/draw hand. He acted on it. When you have a good read on someone, that is what you are supposed to do.

Chomp · #22 10-04-2007, 08:22 PM

Grunch.

Terp, I think this is a great hand to post. Very interesting, and exactly the kind of spot I find myself triple barreling when I chose to triple barrel (something I hardly ever do as a weak-tight nit).

And wow, this hand is a perfect example of how dynamic a NLHE hand can be: I think on flop you were behind, but were right to raise, on turn you were behind, but were wrong to bet, and on river you were behind, but were right to bet.

Here's what I think happened.

I think your key read here is right: "at 50nl, when someone 1/2 pots flop, he typically has a very weak hand or draw.", but your interpretation of what it means on this particular occasion is wrong: villain called with a FD on the flop this time. (So fwiw, your raise to me is 100% legitimate as he'll fold almost all non-fd hands, which is a bigger part of his range than FD's. But, he didn't fold. He called. So, to me, he called with a FD. But I suppose we need to consider TP/99+ a possibility).

On turn, you say "this is a good card". I disagree. The turn brings in TP for EVERY FD villain has called your big flop raise with and villain will call this turn with his AsXs almost always. But as you have taken a gamble on the flop that he has a weak made hand, you then decide (reasonably) that you need to follow through on your read and bet...but when he calls, we can absolutely forget about 99. Villain now, to me, with 100% certainty, has AsXs,

On river, your shove is great. As a weak-tight nit, I can say I fold AsXs here an awful lot. I think you may have made a better hand fold. BUT BUT BUT, I should say that if I am on my game and playing well, I can call you here with AsXs. So I suppose it all depends on which side of the "unremarkable" spectrum villain falls on. Ironically, if he's on the bad side he calls, and if he's on the good side he calls. The mediocre guys in the middle (like me) fold enough for your shove to be correct.

Thank God these hands only come up once in a blue moon.

AFCBeer · #23 10-04-2007, 08:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
. As a weak-tight nit, I can say I fold AsXs here an awful lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. You would fold the nuts here!

I really like your thought process but unfortunately I think you missed the fact the flush came in on the river.

Chomp · #24 10-04-2007, 08:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. As a weak-tight nit, I can say I fold AsXs here an awful lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. You would fold the nuts here!

I really like your thought process but unfortunately I think you missed the fact the flush came in on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

D'oh! lol. Good catch. Erm, ah. Erm. Ok. Ahrrrrm...hahaha. Haven't a clue in that case lol.

Pokerz iz ez.

Lego05 · #25 10-04-2007, 08:53 PM

I would like this a whole lot more if the river were the 2h. He's almost definitely got either a weak one pair hand or a draw and oe of the bigger draws just completed.

You're really basing most of your river decision that he has a weak 1 pair and not a flush on timing tells?

PayoffWiz · #26 10-04-2007, 08:55 PM

I really like this 3 barrel...if you enjoy burning money.

Seriously, this is 50 NL, not 10/20. There is no need for this. I am fairly loose and very aggressive (29/19/3ish)and understand that aggression and putting pressure on your opponent is a key factor in being a winning player, but there is a time and place for it.

This is neither the time nor the place to be going to the felt with your stack IMO. That said, if you have some sort of timing or some other read of which the readers of your post are not privy to, G-d bless. NL is a fluid game with different variables that always need be considered...it justs looks awful on paper.

mackthefork · #27 10-04-2007, 08:58 PM

I quite like it, this is what normally happens when I sense weakness and make a triple barrel bluff, which like yourself is around once every 3-4k hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero ($36.60)
UTG ($102)
MP ($52.15)
CO ($37.20)
Button ($46.65)
SB ($29.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Button raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, CO folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.5, Hero raises to $5.6, Button calls $3.10.

Turn: ($15.95) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls $9.

River: ($33.95) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $20 (All-In), Button calls $20.

Final Pot: $73.95

Results in white below: 
Hero has 4d 5c (one pair, nines).
Button has Qs 8s (two pair, nines and eights).
Outcome: Button wins $73.95. 

Regards Mack

Brian O'Nolan · #28 10-04-2007, 09:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, terp got a read on extreme weakness/draw hand. He acted on it. When you have a good read on someone, that is what you are supposed to do.

[/ QUOTE ]
It is basically meaningless how strong villain's hand is here... the question is how often does he have a draw and often he does he have a weak made hand. And how often does that weak made hand fold on the river. That is why you need to have a read beyond "villain is weak here," because he can look you up weak.

terp · #29 10-04-2007, 09:17 PM

mack,
-bluff in position
-never take wacky lines and expect to generate folds

regards,
justin

Colm · #30 10-04-2007, 09:21 PM

maybe i'm a newb, but i see his range as mostly being draws that all came in on the river, especially Axs, pocket pairs 33,44,88-QQ, and a lot of this range, which all beats you, look you up if you are slag, and a lot of it looks you up nearly 100% of the time. can someone tell me why the river would not be spew? i like flop and turn. if he happens to have 87,98, or 99-TT, cool it worked.

i need to figure out how to calculate the ev if, for example: his range is as i stated, and, if flushes and straights always call, those weak hands call like 10% of the time, JJ-KK call like 40% of time, and any ace w/ no flush calls like 60% of the time.