200NL: Nut flush on paired board river decision

[minnesotasam]

Reads: Villain is a donkament pro (I think) that I've never played cash with. This is like my 15th hand at the table, not much of an image except I c/r'd the flop with 45ss on a Q86ss board, and got it all in on a 7 river (after a 3 on the turn).

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $200.00
BB: $204.00
UTG: $216.20
Hero (MP): $407.15
CO: $123.50
BTN: $183.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $7.00</font>, Hero calls $7.00, 4 folds

Flop: ($17) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $10.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $34.00</font>, UTG calls $24.00

Turn: ($85) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($85) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $46.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>[/i]

Comments on all streets welcome.

Edit: Meant to raise flop to $45, slight misclick.

[TwistedEcho]

Bet turn
Shove now

[BombayBadboy]

I'd neverever check the turn there. We want to get our stack in the middle easily.

As played, get it in. This is Kx alot. Worse flush is possible aswell, although there are not many hands that contain two clubs that he is raising UTG with.

[minnesotasam]

While I certainly don't think betting the turn can ever be wrong, its hard to see how a likely competent player is going to get an entire stack in the middle once we hit the turn. I agree that Kx makes up a large part of his range, don't you think he's check/folding KQ/KJs on the turn?

Logic at the time was that by checking the turn he has to include KJ/KQ in my range, making him far more likely to call a river v-bet thinking I could be v-betting worse. Just playing devil's advocate though, because like I said I don't think its ever wrong to bet the turn.

And I definitely agree that he has a flush almost never in this spot.

[drewvy]

i think this is a K only...A call is good here....a couple ?'s....1)calling a shove on the flop right? 2)how ofter do you lead the turn here?

[drewvy]

the river shove is to rep a bluff or for value?

[minnesotasam]

A shove on the on the flop would be like ~170 into 85, so no, I'm probably not calling without a little more knowledge of my opponent. By lead turn do you mean bet when checked to? With a flush or with my range based on flop/preflop?

And if you think its always a king, why are you only advocating a call?

[drewvy]

by lead turn I mean bet the turn when checked to. You've disguised your hand well so shove is great on the river the more I look at it, I just wonder if villain was dumb enough to flat call your reraise w a set, how +EV is it to shove all the time here? I think sometimes I call just to see villain's cards..maybe a leak

[Pieter86]

It kinda looks like Kx to me, AK might play this way, the problem is I don't think AK KQ are calling your shove as he still got over 120 behind so I think i would just call because When ur shove is called... ur up against boats more often then Kxs (IMO)

[Spy Dog]

It appears you made the nuts on the turn against someone who called a rather large flop raise. No need to play tricky. This may be your only chance to get AI versus another flush.