27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?

[Pudge714]

FWIW I like this call more and more because if we double we can pwn the bubble.

[Insty]

Until people start calling our ATC shoves with A8s

[ryanghall]

I'd call this for sure.

Ryan

[TruFloridaGator]

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FWIW I like this call more and more because if we double we can pwn the bubble.

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That was the point of the OP(not that you didn't know that). We have 2 very tight + 1 thinking opponents so we will certainly pwn if we win this. I actually didn't realize it was so close when I came across this spot. Plus, we're almost always getting 3rd(if we don't bubble) if we play along with the shorty as he blinds away.

I think calling could be optimal but it probably depends on the 1st chance we will have a chance to shove profitably UTG(amongst other future actions & actions by other players besides the big stack). I'm out for a bit, so I'll come up with the right ranges when I get back. In the mean time anyone can play around with it.
Stacks will look like this if Big stack steals this + the next 2 pots:

Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

[Insty]

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Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

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The thing I find interesting here is that EV Fold in this spot (0.222) is slightly larger than our initial EV Fold (0.217).

And it has got to be +EV to push ATC from here. (assuming the bigstack will call tight to keep the bubble alive.)

[TruFloridaGator]

I've played around a bit, but on most sensible ranges its +EV to shove 90%. I think the shorty could be calling a bit wider than I think though so we shouldn't be pushing ATC. I'm not sure exactly how wide the big is calling either. I doubt he is trying to conserve the bubble since he knows I am shoving very wide right here. I think about 60% is right. So we probably should be folding the initial spot and taking this one.

[Little John]

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Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

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The thing I find interesting here is that EV Fold in this spot (0.222) is slightly larger than our initial EV Fold (0.217).

And it has got to be +EV to push ATC from here. (assuming the bigstack will call tight to keep the bubble alive.)

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At this point if the blinds increase to 300/600 the BB will look you up pretty light.

[ymu]

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I've played around a bit, but on most sensible ranges its +EV to shove 90%. I think the shorty could be calling a bit wider than I think though so we shouldn't be pushing ATC. I'm not sure exactly how wide the big is calling either. I doubt he is trying to conserve the bubble since he knows I am shoving very wide right here. I think about 60% is right. So we probably should be folding the initial spot and taking this one.

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Sorry to repeat myself, but there are three non-ICM factors that favour a call:

1. He has an interest in preserving Shortie (within reason) because it keeps the medium stacks tight and handing over their blinds. He should also have a high aversion to doubling Shortie up because then all three opponents will have to open up a bit.

2. You are directly to the right of big stack, so you will likely only get to open push as UTG each orbit. Shortie can open push both his button and his small blind. We're not a favourite to win a last longer comp.

3. If we double up, we pwn the bubble.

I think you have to play this one forward a lot more than the first UTG hand you get.

[TruFloridaGator]

Yeah, definitely a lot of reasons to call, hence the post in the first place but I wanted to take a closer look to see how much better it is than folding with respect to all future considerations. You can't just look at only the positive reasons for making the original call if you are going to look at the future.

[TruFloridaGator]

For those that call normally, what's your calling range?