Prop bet time. I have an edge here right?

[apefish]

talking sngs with my buddy and somehow the following prop bet comes up.
Playing at whatever level he wants (full nine seaters) he says he thinks he can ITM 60 percent of them over a sample of at least 800 but no more than 1K. In other words the bet would stop if at any point between 799 and 1000 he had a 60 percent ITM or at 1000 sngs played if he didn't.
We also are talking a buyout option if he doesnt want to continue past a certain point if he feels its unattainable. I told him I would offer 4-1 off the top of my head.
What it do BBV4life- without knowing much about him except that he currently is a losing sng player overall- do I still have an edge?
FWIW- he may or may not get interested in learning more about good sng play as a result of this- but I wouldn't count on it. Quitting seems the likeliest route.

yeah yeah- no serious bizness blahblahblah but I don't want to take this to a serious bizness forum.

Also, Danny Ocean is the second best thief I know.

[4drugmoney]

Theres a [censored] load of factors about this guy to be able to def say. But if hes a losing player now at SNGs Id say you have a big edge

[filsteal]

Typical standard deviation on ITM after 800 SNGS will be less than 2%. So he's got to figure out how to play with a "true" ITM of at least 55% to have any shot at an "observed" ITM of 60% after 800 (or at any point from 800-1000).

I've never played the super-duper-micro SNGs so I have no idea whether or not that's doable. I'm guessing it's not.

I think you have a gigantic edge at 4-1, unless there exists like a ten cent SNG on some site where everybody pushes AI on the first hand.

[apefish]

Yeah it strikes me as a substantial edge even giving him those odds. And this would be at stars- so $1 min.
Also in my corner are his tendencies to go on tilt and give up on defined goals.
I just couldn't wrap my head around the number right away, but it seems way too high.

[JayTee]

This would mean something like 65-70% ROI. Basically impossible.

[kyleparks]

yeah u win gg

[devilbiss]

Can I get in on this bet?

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, Danny Ocean is the second best thief I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

wait, who be steelin my title?