4/8 B&M; ATs huge flop (check-up)

[ChuckyB]

Table is oddly tight for our usual 4/8 B&M game. 10 players. This is early in my sit. For the first 5-6 hands it's been only 3-5 to the flop...4 is common tonight. Raises are clearing out the field pretty good.

Villain is aggressive, with undeserving and deserving hands. Cold-calling is standard. The only thing discernable from the CC is that he doesn't have complete crap. He'd re-raise with TT+, AQ+.
And once the flop action finished, there was maybe a 5% chance he'd fold the river.

Normal cap is 4 bets...unlimited raising heads up.


Hero UTG+1 w/A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

1 fold, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, all fold.

FLOP: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players / 5 SB)</font>

<font color="red">Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero 3-bets </font>, dealer says "unlimited raising heads-up", <font color="red">Villain 4-bets, Hero 5-bets</font>, Villain seems confused and looks at dealer who again says "unlimited raising heads-up", Villain calls.

TURN: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players / 7 BB)</font>

Hero bets, Villain calls

RIVER: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players / 9 BB)</font>

Hero checks, Villain checks


I was ready to go to the moon on the flop (villain had about 15 BB in his stack, I cover).
The turn, I kept leading, but upon reflection this bet seems useless because it's no longer for value. It's a semi-bluff into a player who isn't going to fold. I wanted to stay aggressive (I'm really working on that) but I think this was unnecessary. However, he almost certainly would have bet the turn if I checked.
The river...I can't imagine I'm calling any bet by him.

[WhiteKnight]

I'm not raising this preflop. In middle or late position with a few people in already, sure... but not UTG+1.

[HollywoodDB]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not raising this preflop. In middle or late position with a few people in already, sure... but not UTG+1.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty standard raise preflop.


I don't like putting in that many bets on the flop, I know we have lots of equity, but after he 4 bets, I don't tink we have as much as we think.

Anyone bet the river?

[Grease]

PF is totally normal. I like 3-betting the flop against weak-tight opponents, but not against LP's or LAG's. 5-betting is spew.

At least you checked the river. There is 0 chance you're good here.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

When he puts the 4th bet in on the flop and you continue to raise/lead, you aren't semibluffing, you're spewing. What possible hand that you beat did he 4-bet with? Some of your straight outs may be either counterfeited or no good, but you're still drawing live enough to call him down and see the river. Even if all your outs are live, each additional bet you put in from this point on has negative or barely positive marginal equity.

[James.]

i would check the turn.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyone bet the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets see.

What percentage of hands you beat call a bet on the river? This one's easy. Zero. Zip. Nada. Thus, no value bet.

Now how about a bluff?

Of the hands that beat you, do &gt; 10% fold to one bet on the river? Sets and 2 pair won't fold for one more bet. TP hands might fold. Flush draws with a pair might fold. How many of those would this opponent 4-bet on the flop? The answer to that question tells you whether or not you can bet the river.

[PorkchopDJG]

Preflop is fine.
I 3 bet the flop as well but after he makes it 4 just check it down.
If he checks on the turn I might bet the river but if he bet the turn he isn't folding the riv for 1 bet so check/fold.

[ChuckyB]

[ QUOTE ]
When he puts the 4th bet in on the flop and you continue to raise/lead, you aren't semibluffing, you're spewing. What possible hand that you beat did he 4-bet with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Four trials from twodimes.net:

Ad Td 53.64
Ah Jh 44.55
**Within his range and the way he played it. But for his sake I hope not.

Ad Td 38.48
9s 9c 59.70
**I didn't realize I was this bad off against a set.

Ad Td 48.18
Jc 9c 50.00
**More what I'd expect him to have, making my play still a spew.

Ad Td 36.97
Qc Tc 56.67
**I discounted this because he would wait for the turn with the nuts.

edit: A fifth in case he was trying to be super-tricky:

Ad Td 54.24
As Ac 43.94

[ChuckyB]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if all your outs are live, each additional bet you put in from this point on has negative or barely positive marginal equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I'm used to these types of draws in 4, 5, 6 or 7-way pots in this game. Clicking the "raise all" button, as it were, was a mistake.