AJs hand (range/math problem)

[milesdyson]

i am posting this for BB from my POV. SB is a pretty big 80/16/1 donkey (as will be shown in this hand).

BB has ~100 hands on me at 35/25/2. please ignore preflop it is clearly wrong to not 3-bet here.

Absolute Poker
Pot Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$3
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $6</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 bb, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $3</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $6</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 bb, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $6</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $12</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (12 bb, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $12</font>, Hero folds, SB calls.

Results:
Final pot: 16 bb
BB Shows Ac Jc
SB had K8o

i think it easy to give me(hero) a hand range in this hand and see what i'm going to do with it vs. SB's turn donk on that blank card.

so i ask someone to come up with a range for me, see how many weighted outs BB has, and see how often he's going to end up paying 2 on the turn (i'll tell u i'm raising KJs+ on turn and yes i can have K6s/K4s but not unsuited kings). i'd raise any nut fd here. then see if he has the odds to pay for this.

sorry if it's kinda mundane and if no one does it i might do it later (probably not).

[Bruce D]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,684 games 0.005 secs 536,800 games/sec

Board: Th Kd 6h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 82.358% 80.89% 01.47% 2171 39.50
KK+, TT, 66, AKs, AdQd, AhQh, AdJd, AhJh, ATs, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs+, K6s, K4s, AKo, KQo, KTo }
Hand 1: 17.642% 16.17% 01.47% 434 39.50 { AcJc }


---

[sharpie]

Without doing the math I would fold the turn.

BB probably has less than 6 outs, and you're raising the turn alot. If you raise the turn 50% of the time he's getting about 6 to 1 if SB never 3 bets. I think you'll be raising the turn more than half the time.

[jba]

he's in a tough spot because if you raise he's not getting the odds and if you don't raise I think his outs are either tainted or in your hand. it's a bad call. sorry he got there on you and then didn't agree that he's a fish.

[TheWunderkind]

[ QUOTE ]
Without doing the math I would fold the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[jstill]

well hes only getting 7 or 8:1 with ur overcall so its close/bad initially even if u never raise the turn donk with one pair. I dont know how much equity to give him 4-5 outs maybe? How often is the A good here? 1 out worth of equity? how often is the Q in one of his opponents hands should that only be 3?

Hes not quite getting the rite implied odds even if he always gets 2 bbs with the nuts on the river.

Since hes not closing the action the fold is clear, if the turn went ck ck bet call... hed probably have to call getting 8:1 but even thats close. The fact ur range here is KT 66 TT KK AA AK and KQ after the flop raise (even if he thinks ull always raise QJ or hearts on the flop) too much of ur range is raising here on the turn for his call to be +EV even w/ implied odds even if he could always ck and fold an A river correctly so that card had no reverse implied odds associated with it.

[sweetjazz]

Hidden outs, implied odds, metagame, bluffing outs, hand strength disguised preflop...this player is going to find a justification to continue on. And really, it's not that big of a mistake. If this is the biggest leak in villain's game, then he's crushing limit hold em.

That said, it sucks when they spike their miracle card to crack your aces. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[danzasmack]

On the turn with AJ i like a raise better than a call. I pretty much expect 2 bb's to go in here and am not calling and letting miles raise behind me.

pf is awful.

[TheWunderkind]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Without doing the math I would fold the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

ok now i got it [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Oink]

Without knowing that much about Miles' play I would think his flop range is

AA[6]
KK[3]
TT[3]
66[3]
AK[9]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[3]
KQ[12]
KJ[9]
KT[9]
K8s-K7s[6]
K6s[2]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][1]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][1]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][1]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][3]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][4]

Forgive me if I counted wrong, which I prolly did. But if Miles raises KJ and better on the turn, thats 54 combos he raises and 21 that he calls.

Ok, so for those of you who dont want to check my counting of combos: Assuming I am right miles will pop the turn 54 out of 78 times or more than 67%. Even when Miles isnt popping, hero doesnt exactly have a million outs as J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the A's are tainted

I cant see how the turn is ever ever ever a call against Miles range. Hero must add a substantial number of Kx hands and heart draws to Miles flop range for a call to be correct. In other words, I have to be WAY of with how I view Miles multiway for calling to be correct.