AQ river and maybe preflop/flop/turn

[milesdyson]

Wow, how did I lay out the case for overcalling this bet? I laid out the case for betting. However, I didn't bet and despite my strongest efforts, I was unable to go back in time to bet the river. So, given that I checked, and that MP bet again, and that Button called this bet, should I call?

I vote no.

[duckman]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, how did I lay out the case for overcalling this bet?
MP can have QJ, Button can have KJ, QQ, KK,

[/ QUOTE ]
Miles is there any size of pot where you are just willing to say there is enough of hand range and enough chance of BS that F'it I am just overcalling? You are a great player and I don't wnat to argue your skill at making player dependent reads. When the button calls what hand is he putting you on? Certainly not an ace. Since he raised the turn but not the river he is saying I don't beat a naked Ace. Therefore its only MP. Are you not better than MP 1 in 15 times here? I call here for those reasons.

[HOWMANY]

I think the turn raiser can easily have a hand that beats just an Ace. I would not be surprised to overcall here and get the bronze medal. However I would also not be surprised to take home the brilliant gold of glory.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, how did I lay out the case for overcalling this bet?
MP can have QJ, Button can have KJ, QQ, KK,

[/ QUOTE ]
Miles is there any size of pot where you are just willing to say there is enough of hand range and enough chance of BS that F'it I am just overcalling? You are a great player and I don't wnat to argue your skill at making player dependent reads. When the button calls what hand is he putting you on? Certainly not an ace. Since he raised the turn but not the river he is saying I don't beat a naked Ace. Therefore its only MP. Are you not better than MP 1 in 15 times here? I call here for those reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not worried about button. I have him beat just about every time. He's making a bad call with hands like KK/QQ/KJ in my opinion. No, it doesn't make a difference as far as my call goes - if anything, it makes calling look more enticing because he has donated an extra bet. However, I am stupid and would have called had he folded (simply out of curiosity).

The main point is obviously MP. Like I said before, the only way I beat him or chop with him is if he made some dumb play on the turn with AQ or A9. If he is weird enough to do that, I should also assume he would donk KQ there, in which case he just rivered the nuts. Either way, I don't think good players donkbet anything other than QJ/KJ/AJ there. And once raised, betting anything other than AJ into two other good players on the ace river can't be good. Basically what has to happen for that bet to be good for him is the following:

Button has to have KJ, KK, or QQ and not AA, TT, JJ, 88, AT, or AJ. Button then has to fold his KJ, KK, or QQ on the river. The other player (me in this hand) will never ever call a river bet on that card with a hand worse than KJ, but MP should never expect me to fold a hand as good as AQ. He also has to worry about me holding KQ or another hand that rivered two pair.

[HOWMANY]

I think you give your opponents way too much credit. I just assume everyone is braindead retarded and work from there.

[milesdyson]

The main thing I want to know is when someone is going to find the hidden treasure in this thread. When someone finds it, I'll let everyone know the truth.

edit in response to HOWMANY's post below: God no. I hate that crap, even though I once did create a gimmick account to repost a hand by NateThaGreat in the old HUSH forum, because I thought the replies were way biased.

[HOWMANY]

Is this some hand from like 5 years ago played by Schneids or something?

[slamhound]

Anyone for c/r-ing the flop?

[HOWMANY]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone for c/r-ing the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What will that do for us?

At first I was going to say it sounds terrible, then I looked and liked it for a second and went back to hating it. Now I'm trying to like it because our hand could easily have a T here. The problem is that a lot of MP's hands that don't cap preflop contain a T also. I don't hate it as much as before I thought on it a little, but I still don't like it at all. We clean up outs against 1 hand but chase out guys that are dominated way more often.

[milesdyson]

And I'll just let everyone know since no one is finding it. I'm probably the only one who often verifies the pot size in hand posts when someone makes a big fold.

Notice the pot on the river was 12.2 BB, and the final pot says 15.2 BB. That means I called right? Well that's what I wanted you to think, and then I would say, "Lol I actually added a BB to the pot to next level you!"

Anyway, the HH (and the next HH for chat by 4C35 and I - bolded parts for emphasis):

POKERSTARS GAME #9391227581: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($5/$10) - 2007/04/12 - 21:17:57 (ET)
Table 'Alcor' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: npread2p ($183 in chips)
Seat 2: TedBroke ($330 in chips)
Seat 3: 4C35 ($158 in chips)
Seat 4: anatta ($373 in chips)
Seat 5: ysscky ($193.50 in chips)
anatta: posts small blind $2
ysscky: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ysscky [As Qh]
TedBroke said, "**** you"
npread2p: folds
TedBroke: raises $5 to $10
4C35: raises $5 to $15
anatta: folds
ysscky: calls $10
TedBroke: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [Tc 2d 8d]
ysscky: checks
TedBroke: checks
4C35: bets $5
ysscky: calls $5
TedBroke: calls $5
*** TURN *** [Tc 2d 8d] [Jc]
ysscky: checks
TedBroke: bets $10
4C35: raises $10 to $20
ysscky: calls $20
TedBroke: calls $10
*** RIVER *** [Tc 2d 8d Jc] [Ah]
ysscky: checks
TedBroke: bets $10
4C35: calls $10
ysscky: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TedBroke: shows [Jh Ac] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
4C35: mucks hand
TedBroke collected $140 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $142 | Rake $2
Board [Tc 2d 8d Jc Ah]
Seat 1: npread2p folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TedBroke showed [Jh Ac] and won ($140) with two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 3: 4C35 (button) mucked [Kc Kd]
Seat 4: anatta (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: ysscky (big blind) folded on the River

POKERSTARS GAME #9391238210: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($5/$10) - 2007/04/12 - 21:18:35 (ET)
Table 'Alcor' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: npread2p ($183 in chips)
Seat 2: TedBroke ($420 in chips)
Seat 3: 4C35 ($108 in chips)
Seat 4: anatta ($371 in chips)
Seat 5: ysscky ($153.50 in chips)
ysscky: posts small blind $2
npread2p: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ysscky [2s Js]
4C35 said, "AGNGNGG"
ysscky said, "i had AQ ladies"
TedBroke: folds
4C35: raises $5 to $10
anatta: raises $5 to $15
ysscky: folds
npread2p: folds
4C35: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [5c Ad 7h]
4C35: checks
anatta: bets $5
4C35: folds
anatta collected $36 from pot
anatta: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $37 | Rake $1
Board [5c Ad 7h]
Seat 1: npread2p (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: TedBroke folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: 4C35 folded on the Flop
Seat 4: anatta (button) collected ($36)
Seat 5: ysscky (small blind) folded before Flop

Hopefully you were entertained.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] always,

milesdyson - saving bets and making results-oriented hand posts since 2004.