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  #11  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:39 PM
mickb70 mickb70 is offline
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Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

OK does the UTG limper with 19BB influence our decision to raise pre-flop at all? Or do we just raise w PP regardless? He is the guy we would stack most likely if we do raise hit set and there is no set value in his stack. What do we do if he calls and leads flop?
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  #12  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:50 PM
meleader2 meleader2 is offline
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Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

[ QUOTE ]
OK does the UTG limper with 19BB influence our decision to raise pre-flop at all? Or do we just raise w PP regardless? He is the guy we would stack most likely if we do raise hit set and there is no set value in his stack. What do we do if he calls and leads flop?

[/ QUOTE ]


UTG is 42/13/.38 over 24 hands. in those 24 hands, he lost 16.2$ with 33, and 9.25$ with TT:



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($62.10)
UTG ($99.45)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($58.85)</font>
CO ($49.25)
Button ($70.45)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($16.20)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: ($5.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $26.5</font>, SB calls $7.95 (All-In).

Turn: ($33.40) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($33.40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $33.40

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has 3h 3s (two pair, sixes and threes).
Hero has 7h 7s (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins $45.95. </font>





Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">BB ($52.35)</font>
UTG ($99.95)
Hero ($61.85)
CO ($50)
Button ($67.70)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($9.25)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $1.50, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.5</font>, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $11 (All-In)</font>, BB calls $2.25.

Flop: ($21.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: ($21.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($21.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $21.25

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Td Th (full house, fours full of tens).
BB doesn't show.
Outcome: SB wins $21.25. BB wins $1.25. </font>


this is kind of weird. PT claims he lost this hand not won it. converter is wrong. BB had JJ for full, 4s full of Js.
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  #13  
Old 11-29-2007, 10:01 PM
DMACM DMACM is offline
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Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

Preflop I think his range is JJ+ AK+ maybe AQ maybe TT 99.

I assume you called preflop for set value.

The flop is pretty good for your hand. I'd say you are ahead about 50% of the time. I would call a lot if it looked like a cbet in this spot in the past. However I think that the times he outdraws you or bluffs later make this a fold. I dont think you can stick it in here either cause I think too often you run into an overpair.

On the turn as played easy fold.
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  #14  
Old 11-30-2007, 08:52 AM
bozzer bozzer is offline
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Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

[ QUOTE ]

I assume you called preflop for set value.

The flop is pretty good for your hand. I'd say you are ahead about 50% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

calling for set value alone is not good here. this is definately a top 10% flop for your hand, but we are still in a v sticky spot re trying to showdown our hand, so fold pre and flip a coin post, i'm probably folding &gt; raising &gt; calling flop. i think a raise is ok cos half the time we call we see an overcard come and we have to fold, plus we might fold 99,TT,JJ sometimes, but I think folding is best.
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  #15  
Old 11-30-2007, 09:41 AM
patrick10 patrick10 is offline
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Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

straight off the bat. He is pretty tight and quite aggressive.

he plays 22% of hands which is fairly tight

he raises 13% (lets assume the top 13% of those)

his PF 3 bet range would be &lt;4% of hands i imagine and im sure some people would put it much smaller than that.

A standard 3 betting range PF i think includes AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AKo. This is equal to 3% of hands. I tend to think that the 3 bet range is pretty damn small- so maybe even no AKo. But we can't say for sure so lets leave it in.


On the flop, we are a 37 - 63 dog.

Board: 5c 5s 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.203% 63.08% 00.12% 149883 288.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.797% 36.68% 00.12% 87141 288.00 { 66 }



To be honest i think the FLOP might be a fold. (A case of reverse implied odds ?! ) Even though you may be getting about the right price to call the flop, You have a weak hand which is very unlilkely to improve.

When the turn comes J, Q, K, A how comfortable are you when BB goes all in? What if he bets half the pot ? Can you even call that, knowing a river is another chance for your sixes to get outdrawn?


The turn is a lucky card for you since it is A) an undercard unlikely to help villain, &amp; B) gives you 4 extra outs for a straight with a 7.

Unfortunately, i think you are literally drawing to the last 2 sixes or a 7 to save you here. SO even though you actually improve your equity to 42% DOG, it should be a fold on the flop and as played, on the turn.

If you call, you are basically bluff catching against AK.

This would then become some kindof complex (for me)math based on your reads and weighting AK within his range, to see if AK is such a large part of his PF 3 bet range that this play is profitable.

cliffnotes:
fold flop, as played fold Turn
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  #16  
Old 11-30-2007, 09:55 AM
patrick10 patrick10 is offline
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Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

To everyone saying fold PRE flop can someone show me some math or a pokey thread or something, i haven't checked up on this part of my game for a while but as far as i see PF,
we are paying $5.25 to win $10

Our equity is 33% against JJ+; AKo; AKs.

isn't this around the right price?

Note. 1) yes i worship pokey.
2) yes it is a tricky situation after the flop for 66.
3) yes it is a fairly large portion of stack (13% of effective stack)
4) I am not doubting we can fold PF, but i don't think its a big a mistake as everyone is making it out to be...

5) isn't there a NUMBER (eg. 9% of stack) which we can mathematically call with to flop sets? call me a dumbass for asking this Q but whatever. i think i remember reading a topic on this agggges ago.
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  #17  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:13 AM
Chxdgt Chxdgt is offline
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Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

[ QUOTE ]
5) isn't there a NUMBER (eg. 9% of stack) which we can mathematically call with to flop sets? call me a dumbass for asking this Q but whatever. i think i remember reading a topic on this agggges ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you're referring to this thread?
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rt=all&amp;vc=1
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  #18  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:13 AM
meleader2 meleader2 is offline
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Posts: 3,900
Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

[ QUOTE ]
To everyone saying fold PRE flop can someone show me some math or a pokey thread or something, i haven't checked up on this part of my game for a while but as far as i see PF,
we are paying $5.25 to win $10

Our equity is 33% against JJ+; AKo; AKs.

isn't this around the right price?

Note. 1) yes i worship pokey.
2) yes it is a tricky situation after the flop for 66.
3) yes it is a fairly large portion of stack (13% of effective stack)
4) I am not doubting we can fold PF, but i don't think its a big a mistake as everyone is making it out to be...

5) isn't there a NUMBER (eg. 9% of stack) which we can mathematically call with to flop sets? call me a dumbass for asking this Q but whatever. i think i remember reading a topic on this agggges ago.

[/ QUOTE ]


i tried to give helpful hints in my OP regarding his turn/river AF but noone seemed to care, except for a select few thinkers.

those who say fold PREflop are wrong wrong wrong. "you'll never get paid, its a bad call" well looky here, if i had 88 i'd have been paid already. and i'm in position against an OVERAGGRESSER. wtf more could u ask for.

HIS TURN AF IS FIVE. FIVE. FIF. why do you not call this. i understand AF is calculated even if he minbets. is it the amount of $? what makes you think i'm beat here?
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  #19  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:16 AM
Lego05 Lego05 is offline
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Posts: 3,477
Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

[ QUOTE ]
To everyone saying fold PRE flop can someone show me some math or a pokey thread or something, i haven't checked up on this part of my game for a while but as far as i see PF,
we are paying $5.25 to win $10

Our equity is 33% against JJ+; AKo; AKs.

isn't this around the right price?

[/ QUOTE ]


Hero's not all-in. Hero's gonna have to put more money in post-flop.


You need to on average make 11.7 times your pre-flop investment in order to profitably setmine.


Now here: there is $10 in the pot and villian has $44 behind so it's a possibility to win $54. Hero needs to call $5.25. 5.25 times 11.7 = $61.425. So hero needs to on average get $61.50 in the pot when he flops set in order to profitably call pre-flop to set mine, but there's only $54 in play. So there isn't even enough money in play for calling pre-flop to be profitable (we don't even need to think about opponent's range and how likely he will be to pay us off what we need) - this is an easy fold, not even enough money in play to cover the implied odds hero needs.
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  #20  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:20 AM
Lego05 Lego05 is offline
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Posts: 3,477
Default Re: 50nl 6max: 66 in 3bet pot

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To everyone saying fold PRE flop can someone show me some math or a pokey thread or something, i haven't checked up on this part of my game for a while but as far as i see PF,
we are paying $5.25 to win $10

Our equity is 33% against JJ+; AKo; AKs.

isn't this around the right price?

Note. 1) yes i worship pokey.
2) yes it is a tricky situation after the flop for 66.
3) yes it is a fairly large portion of stack (13% of effective stack)
4) I am not doubting we can fold PF, but i don't think its a big a mistake as everyone is making it out to be...

5) isn't there a NUMBER (eg. 9% of stack) which we can mathematically call with to flop sets? call me a dumbass for asking this Q but whatever. i think i remember reading a topic on this agggges ago.

[/ QUOTE ]


i tried to give helpful hints in my OP regarding his turn/river AF but noone seemed to care, except for a select few thinkers.

those who say fold PREflop are wrong wrong wrong. "you'll never get paid, its a bad call"

[/ QUOTE ]


It doesn't really matter if you get paid. In my post right before this one I said it, but there isn't enough money in play for you to have enough implied odds to setmine even if you get stacks in every single time you hit a set. You'll be getting paid too little for the amount of times that you will make a set for it to be profitable.

Now maybe you could call if you weren't planning on just setmining....but you didn't say anything about him 3betting you light and his PFR is only 13 and even if he is 3betting you light I really still don't really like calling with 66.
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