odds to chase?

[RustedCorpse]

I really felt like I was chasing during this hand. Table is incredibly passive with most hands. I've had checked down Ace high for winners at least twice within the last 40 hands.
SB is 28.9%SF/8.7PFR/1.6 aggro over 150 hands. We've played four hands against each other at this table. 2 were checked rivers; one of which he called down with K high and lost. The other two hands he's called my pot sized bets unable to beat top pair (my table stats: 17.8/11.7/2.2)

Overcaller is new to table 15.9/7.0/0.4 over about 80 hands.

At the time I felt that I'm looking at a decent chance of being paid of on the river given the nature of SB.. but even then I am getting odds on every street right?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $3.60
SB: $8.15
BB: $1.85
UTG: $4.10
UTG+1: $9.60
Hero (UTG+2): $3.20
MP1: $9.80
MP2: $8.15
CO: $14.90

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG+2)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $0.40, BTN folds, SB calls $0.35, BB folds

Flop: ($1.30) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.10</font>, Hero calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10

Turn: ($1.60) 8 (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.10</font>, Hero calls $0.10, <font color="red">CO raises to $0.25</font>, SB calls $0.15, Hero calls $0.15

River: ($2.35) Q (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.20</font>, Hero folds, CO calls $1.20

[VLV]

Well you have 4 outs to a T (assuming the T of spades is clean). So using the rule of 4s you have approx 16% to hit your hand, which means you need to be getting 1:5.25 on your money. Which means that when the pot is $1.30 on the flop you can profitably put about 20c in. (Which is a bit wrong since you're only going to be putting money in if someone bets and thus you need to work out money for a pot that will be &gt;$1.30).

However this is assuming that you will get to see both turn and river cards.

Someone correct me on the math I'm wrong, I was kind of actually just doing it for myself as well to see if I understand that stuff correctly.

Overall I think that the bets are so small, and since you believe you have implied odds, you can easily call these bets.

[RustedCorpse]

I just have pot odds to outs memorized, I actually never really sit and do the math. I figured at this table the A or K might be good like 20% of the time. I figured that plus the four tens (and backdoor 1.5 on flop) I was good for 6.5 outs? Which meant I needed about 5.1 or so. So about the same final line.

I just feel like this shouldn’t be happening in NL or my estimations are too loose.

[iheartponeez]

In spots like this just start very conservative. You have 3 outs. The three tens that aren't the ten of spades. So you have a 6% shot of hitting on each street. (The big mistake people make is thinking they have 12% odds to call, not realizing that they might be facing a much larger bet on the next street). So 6%, about 1 out of 17. You can call each bet here, getting slightly less than 17-1 odds, because you can expect your opponents will pay you off the .30 or so it takes to get the correct odds. Since this very tight estimate looks good, it all looks good.

PS: I'm only this conservative in multi-way pots. You can't really count on any out in pots like these, except ones that make you the nuts. Any A or K is liable to give someone a 2-pair. Any spade is a flush. It's just not unlikely enough that nobody has hands like spades or KQ, AJ, etc. to warrant putting money in with pair outs. You want the ten, that's all you want, and that's perfectly fine here. 3-way is close, but I tend to play it close to the chest, all the same.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
In spots like this just start very conservative. You have 3 outs.

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Disagree I think that both overcards are also live and even the Ace might be good if villain has a FD. I think this hand is played fine, you have like 9 outs and a backdoor NFD on the flop and then on the tun you are getting totally ridiculous odds with what I see as 9 clean outs (3x ace 3x king 3x ten)

River fold is standard

[iheartponeez]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In spots like this just start very conservative. You have 3 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree I think that both overcards are also live and even the Ace might be good if villain has a FD. I think this hand is played fine

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I say start conservative. If you say, "3 is too low, I think I have 6," or something, that's fine. But if you start with 3, and see that you're still doing fine, then you know that nothing is gonna make this a bad move.

I just like to start worst-case. It's what makes me such a weak-tight genius.

But, really...he just looks like he's drawing so much, but since I don't know which draw he's on, none of them hitting makes me comfortable (except the one that gives me the nuts). K hits one, spades hits the other. Aces are probably good, though. So I'm going with 5-6 outs in retrospect.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In spots like this just start very conservative. You have 3 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree I think that both overcards are also live and even the Ace might be good if villain has a FD. I think this hand is played fine

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I say start conservative. If you say, "3 is too low, I think I have 6," or something, that's fine. But if you start with 3, and see that you're still doing fine, then you know that nothing is gonna make this a bad move.

I just like to start worst-case. It's what makes me such a weak-tight genius.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 13:1 on the flop and 16:1 on the turn Id probably just call for the fun of it tbh, that is just some ridiculous odds