NL50: TPTK OOP gets raised on flop on fairly dry board by unknown

[Pokerdemic]

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $49.25
MP: $41.45
CO: $50.70
BTN: $28
SB: $64.85
BB: $53.80

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, 4 folds

Flop: ($4.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $9</font>, Hero's options?

[AZplaya]

if he was deeper I might try a stack a donk(call, cr ai on turn.) Here I think you can just shove and get called by any queen.

[dersl]

kinda sucks against unknown...

[AZplaya]

[ QUOTE ]
kinda sucks against unknown...here's a line I like better

[/ QUOTE ]
fixed your post.

[well named]

In cts' recent video at 200NL he mentions at one point that he noticed that many villains had bet-sizing tells where they were much less likely to bluff-raise over larger c-bets in position in these kinds of spots because they didn't like to have to commit so much of their stacks to do so. For that same reason, I think I'd rather bet more like 4$ on this flop.

As played, I guess it really comes down to whether or not we can put hands like KQ, or some kind of semi-bluff with hands {89s,J9s,AK,KJ} (or total air) into his range. If yes, shove, if not, fold. What's a better range for an unknown flat calling an UTG raiser at 50NL? I don't know. How many hands have you been at the table and how much raising have you done in that time? If he hasn't seen you raising or c-betting all that much I'm probably OK with giving this one up and making a note, but it's very close and a shove can't be a huge mistake either.

I agree that with these stack sizes calling is awkward. If we call and check the turn he should shove for slightly more than pot with his entire range and we have a very tough decision. So shove or fold I think.

[Ranma4703]

[ QUOTE ]
In cts' recent video at 200NL he mentions at one point that he noticed that many villains had bet-sizing tells where they were much less likely to bluff-raise over larger c-bets in position in these kinds of spots because they didn't like to have to commit so much of their stacks to do so. For that same reason, I think I'd rather bet more like 4$ on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have noticed the same thing, which is why I like to bet weakly on boards like this, and then put them all in after 'considering' for a bit. They put you on AK and call with trash a lot. What you are suggesting is changing our bet sizing so our opponents play better - that is a huge mistake, I believe.

[well named]

It would be a huge mistake if I had a hand that I definitely wanted to stack off with, but I'm not sure TPTK is that hand on this board, although if it is then you are certainly correct.

With TPTK OOP against an unknown though I would rather subtly persuade villain to play straightforwardly if I can, since it makes my decisions easier and negates some of the positional disadvantage. It's also not very exploitable on his part since my UTG raising range is tight enough that QQ+ is a real threat.

What I'm really saying is that the 'unknown' part is important here, and inclines me to seek play that is closer to optimal (or unexploitable) than exploitive, since exploitive play should necessarily rely on a read that we don't have.

[latvaniemi]

Call dont like to go to war 100b deep against cr with tptk.

If you have a read he migh try this with kq - kj i would shove over him. Otherwise it feels marginal. Smells like a set but could also be a tp that want to push you away from the pot.

Not really much help but it's a crappy spot... without read i'll probably fold 70-80% of the time and shove the rest.

[Spenda]

READS!!! This is 6max, very important!

[AZplaya]

[ QUOTE ]
Call dont like to go to war 100b deep against cr with tptk.

[/ QUOTE ]
its not a c/r he's raising our cbet. Alot of NL$50 players raise weak looking cbets like this with a wide range on boards like this.