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  #11  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:31 PM
Apanage Apanage is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

[ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't you raise 10,10d-K-Kd on this board and wouldn't you bet that turn???

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is one thing for him to raise flop with TT or KK. But when two players cold calls two behind he canīt really like his hand that much.And then he also knows that a good player donked flop and is more likely to have an ace than not.
Also better Ax hands,sets,and two diamond hands are significantly more combos than his KK-TT hands.
And I think we should heavily discount the number of times he bets turn with the latter hands anyway (especially QQ-TT). We are also risking a 3-bet if we are up against a better hand. Plus that one of the fish already can have made a flush which he slowplays brilliantly.
To sum it up I donīt think the fish offers enough overlay to make the checkraise profitable.

At the river I would just bet.Baskets call on turn indicates that it is a big risk that he wonīt bet this river
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  #12  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:39 PM
BubbleMint BubbleMint is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

As others have said, I dont C/R turn, but I do bet river.

Also the turn only lets us overtake a flopped 2 pair, I would be far more worried about a flopped set than flopped 2 pair.
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  #13  
Old 10-19-2007, 06:42 AM
topspinner topspinner is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

I find the donk bet on the flop very interesting. This is something I almost never do, is that the right play in this instance? I have noticed good players donk betting flops more often and I am trying to figure out why.
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  #14  
Old 10-19-2007, 08:36 AM
xerxesthegod xerxesthegod is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

I'm not sure there are more combos that beat me.

Let's see.

An A left four K,Q,J,10 that beat me it's 16 combos
A pair of 5 or 7 that's three combos left for each so 6 combos

A pair of Aces 1 combo and any non A flush hand like J,10+
Q,Js - K,Js and maybe J,9s so 6 more combos

So 29 combos that beat me. Now let's see what I beat

Any hand from 8,8-K,K that's 6 combos each so 36 combos and maybe A,8s or even A,6s but I don't count them anyways I have more combos that lose to me here.


Anyways so everyone agrees that I shouldn't raise this turn. Now how would you play this if you knew your opponent becomes over aggro on three to flush or straight boards???

This guy would have waited for the turn to raise and charge fishies the max if he had A,K-A,Q and he would have just called down if he had K,K or Q,Q with a diamond in them. Anyways my way of seeing this hand is probably read and result based. actually I asked a question about the river because I was sure about my turn play and since I was putting him on 10,10-K,K I thought a check raise on the river would make sens since he has a full house and he wouldn't play the flush like that on that turn ( he would have reraised me back).
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  #15  
Old 10-19-2007, 08:39 AM
xerxesthegod xerxesthegod is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't you raise 10,10d-K-Kd on this board and wouldn't you bet that turn???

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is one thing for him to raise flop with TT or KK. But when two players cold calls two behind he canīt really like his hand that much.And then he also knows that a good player donked flop and is more likely to have an ace than not.
Also better Ax hands,sets,and two diamond hands are significantly more combos than his KK-TT hands.
And I think we should heavily discount the number of times he bets turn with the latter hands anyway (especially QQ-TT). We are also risking a 3-bet if we are up against a better hand. Plus that one of the fish already can have made a flush which he slowplays brilliantly.
To sum it up I donīt think the fish offers enough overlay to make the checkraise profitable.

At the river I would just bet.Baskets call on turn indicates that it is a big risk that he wonīt bet this river

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think that he doesn't bet a pair hand when the A gets paired???? Actually that sounds quite standard to me. If he raises this flop with a pair I don't see why he wouldn't bet the turn when the A gets paired.
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  #16  
Old 10-19-2007, 09:00 AM
xerxesthegod xerxesthegod is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

Here is what poker stove says correct me if I'm wrong.

72,732,000 games 21.656 secs 3,358,514 games/sec

Board: Ad 7d 5d Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.602% 45.79% 03.82% 33300876 2775649.00 { Ah9d }
Hand 1: 24.309% 22.98% 01.33% 16714138 966424.00 { 55+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 13.044% 11.80% 01.24% 8582844 904612.50 { 66+, A2s+, K7s+, K5s, Q9s+, Q7s, Q5s, J9s+, J7s, J5s, T9s, T7s, T5s, 97s, 95s, 87s, 85s, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A5o+, KQo }
Hand 3: 13.044% 11.80% 01.24% 8582844 904612.50 { 66+, A2s+, K7s+, K5s, Q9s+, Q7s, Q5s, J9s+, J7s, J5s, T9s, T7s, T5s, 97s, 95s, 87s, 85s, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A5o+, KQo }
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  #17  
Old 10-19-2007, 09:08 AM
Oink Oink is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

So given the flop action you think all these guys can have Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Those ranges are way of.

Oh and OP. If you think you are so right and that everyone here is so wrong, why do you post the hand?
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  #18  
Old 10-19-2007, 11:02 AM
xerxesthegod xerxesthegod is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

So stove it for me. All you can do here is put ranges you can't really stove each situation and discount this hand or that hand from the range. for two fishes those ranges are not off at all these guys are 70/5/0.3 type. in this hand one called all the way and all the raises with pocket 6 and the other guy with K,4o with the Kd so no these ranges are not way off.

And i don't say I'm right here but all we have here are people saying they wouldn't play the hand like that but no one says why. the only person giving real reasons is Apnage and I was discussing the reasons he gave in the last two posts with him.
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  #19  
Old 10-19-2007, 11:58 AM
TheDudeChad TheDudeChad is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

If you were confident enough that villain would raise KK-88 on this flop and bet the turn into 3 callers, then the river looks like an easy CR since your hand looks like a flush and a hand like KK couldn't pass up that value bet.

That said, I think its very unlikely that he does have KK-88 given the flop and turn play. I think its reasonably likely he could have raised them on the flop, but once he gets 3 callers he has to believe at least someone has an A. That would be a pretty bad turn bet. On the turn I think his most likely hands are a better A, a flopped set, or a flopped flush, then KK-88.

So, like others have said, just call turn and donk river.
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  #20  
Old 10-19-2007, 12:14 PM
Oink Oink is offline
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Default Re: Anyone check raising this river????

[ QUOTE ]
So stove it for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I wont.

You posted the hand to get critique I assume. Then people tell you that turn is bad - which is a very complicated spot to analyse -. I havent ever seen you make a thorough analysis of any hand someone else posted. Why do you expect people should do it for you then?


I already told you that we cant expect a TAG to raise a lot of worse hands on the flop. Apanage told you that even if he did its quite a parlay to expect him to bet again on the turn when he gets 2 coldcallers.

If the TAG is raising KK on the flop and betting again on the turn he is an idiot. You didnt post in the OP that he is an idiot so you cant expect people to tell you what to do under that assumption.


[ QUOTE ]
for two fishes those ranges are not off at all these guys are 70/5/0.3 type.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry. I missed where you put that in your OP... O wait!




Also. Why the hell would you post a hand and then when people tell you they wouldnt play it like you, you get mad like a little girl...?
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