600NL stupid hand versus regular

[Mr_Donktastic]

I can't believe that this much effort is going into whether or not to raise AA to 10BBs preflop.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Albert,

Sometimes people just say something so ridiculous that people can't even be bothered to respond to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I resemble that remark. But I'm still hoping for the guys who know I'm ridiculous to post an EV calculation to show how ridiculous I am. If I'm as far into space as many think, then it should be easy for them to put together an EV calculation to prove it.

Mike's made an excellent point about factoring in the chance of a higher set on the turn and river when getting out flopped, and I'm going to work on seeing if that changes the final analysis on relative EVs.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe that this much effort is going into whether or not to raise AA to 10BBs preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It may not need to be 10bb's. The theoretical question is one of reverse implied odds. Is it theoretically higher EV to raise more than OP's 5bb's given the effective stack sizes in that hand? I used 10bbs as an example.

I think it is higher EV to raise more, as much as 10bbs, even if villain only calls the larger raise only 10% of the time.

I'm only putting so much effort into it because I think the math supports my belief despite the overwhelming exerience in the forum that believes the opposite. I'm trying to understand the EV calc. that supports that experience.

[Mr_Donktastic]

I'm not sure how useful the EV calc would be. And that's even if we could all agree on assumptions about what villain holds (saying its a pp 100% of the time is LOL) and how often he will call with a PP (I think its near 0%).

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure how useful the EV calc would be. And that's even if we could all agree on assumptions about what villain holds (saying its a pp 100% of the time is LOL) and how often he will call with a PP (I think its near 0%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

I figured out Mike's concern I think, too. Overpair vs set has about a .1 equity. So, my EV calc changes like this.

EV($30 raise) = 1.00*[($63*0.88)+[(0.11*-$594*.9)+(0.11*$594*.1)]+(0.01*$594)] = +9.11

EV($60 raise) = ( 0.1*[($123*0.88)+[(0.11*-$594*.9)+(0.11*$594*.1)]+(0.01*$594)] ) + ( 0.9*(3+6+6) ) = +$19.69.

The biggest problem here is that even when the CO folds 100% of the time, the EV for the smaller raise is less than what is already in the preflop pot, making it higher EV to have CO fold every time as opposed to offering up the reverse implied odds of the lower raise.

But I really do appreciate your thoughtful response. Thanks.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Jhill has done some nice work on how to do the calculations. It's not a wash.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using this as an example, I think the overpair has about a .1 equity.

Board: 4c 7s Kd
Hand 0: 09.192% { AA }
Hand 1: 90.808% { 44 }

I've updated the EV calc accordingly in another response. Unfortunately, I still get higher EV from the bigger raise even if CO folds to the higher raise 100% of the time.

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Albert,

Sometimes people just say something so ridiculous that people can't even be bothered to respond to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, this is one of those times.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Albert,

Sometimes people just say something so ridiculous that people can't even be bothered to respond to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, this is one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. I figured that. It just seems that conventional wisdom on this topic doesn't seem to have an easy EV calculation to back it up. Do you have one?

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Albert,

Sometimes people just say something so ridiculous that people can't even be bothered to respond to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, this is one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. I figured that. It just seems that conventional wisdom on this topic doesn't seem to have an easy EV calculation to back it up. Do you have one?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the time to explain why it is bad to raise that large in an ev calc. Just accept that it is conventional wisdom and standard because its the best line. After all, that is why lines become standard, because they maximize ev.

[Phresh]

Al,

I don't always have AA. I don't always want to raise 10xBB. I'd have to alter my entire game to do so. Most of the time, people just fold to this raise. I am fine with people set mining against me since I often don't have AA in that spot. I like people limp-calling 5xBB and check-folding on a vast majority of flops.

I don't want people limp-folding a hand that rarely ever hits. Getting outdrawn by a set on your big hands is something that has to happen. If I know people will call 10xBB to set mine, I'm all for raising, but most won't.