AdT vs 3b

[milesdyson]

even though i am ~tight utg (17/17 maybe), people still 3bet me with KQo, ATo, and 55 on the button. even 24/15 guys (pahud induced 3-bets). this guy is no exception.

so i raise A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] utg.

he 3-bets on the button. he's 26/16/2 and i don't have notes on him after 400 hands. i have seen him post on other poker sites, though. when i have no notes after that many hands it means i haven't seen him do something that pissed me off. things that anger me include bluff/semibluff turn raises with clearly no chance of folding the other guy, and also incredible calldowns of bets on all streets after flop checkraises with 66 on AJ2r8T (yes his hand was good).

anyway, i call, and flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (heads up)

i check call because i have backdoor outs and he probably has 88 lol.

turn is an A. i forgot suit but not a heart so it did not put up a second flush draw.

i check because i think a donkbet can actually maybe fold <JJ and i think he'll bet a lot of his range on this card because he

1. thinks i could fold a better hand (say 77).
2. thinks i called flop with a gutshot and am now folding.

so i check, he bets.

now i think i'll make more cashmoney on the river if i raise here intead of allowing myself to be valuetowned by all better hands. i doubt he bets many worse hands on he river if i just c/c, in other words. before i raise i do some quick thinking - basically planning on how to react to any more action. i really feel like he can't 3-bet me with with anything but A9+ and MAYBE AK. i DID NOT give off any timing tells, though, so don't assume i waited long in this decision.

so i raised in a normal amount of time. and given my thoughts about "any more action," i folded when he 3-bet me.

[Absolution]

Wouldn't a solid guy give up with any hand that you beat on the turn anyway? I wouldn't waste two bets here. If I call the turn, you're right that he won't bet the river with anything I beat, so I can safely fold. Your way means you lose 2 when behind and win 1 when ahead (as well as possibility get bluffed out because he knows you're a solid player and just called pre-flop so you probably don't have a big A.) My way means you win 1 when ahead and lose 1 when behind (as well as a possibility that he bets the river with a small pp for some reason.)

[jba]

i like everything but the turn raise. I'm not sure what you're doing there. you're basically targeting KQ and KK/JJ? I think betting the river or c/f the river is better.

[midnightpulp]

Tough spot.

Not really crazy about the flop peel. Given his estimated range, Stove has your draw about a 4.5 to 1 dog. Even though the pot is about 7SB, we have to hope he has an underpair to make a flop call correct. Furthermore, if you do make your hand, you don't stand to make much more as a weaker hand will definitely shut down.

As for the turn, I like going to check-call down mode, maybe donk betting the river, forcing him into a crying call with TT, JJ, KK, and of course folding to a raise. Question is, will he pay it off?

FWIW, here's your turn equity:

26,928 games 0.035 secs 769,371 games/sec

Board: Qd 9d 4h Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.991% 43.20% 00.79% 11633 213.00 { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 56.009% 55.22% 00.79% 14869 213.00 { ATo }


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[milesdyson]

yeah i think check calling turn and donking the river is best. thx

[engine_block]

Your memory sucks miles. The turn was double hearted and double clubbed. At least you hit the top two cards correctly.

And no, you aren't that tight up front. You've shown down some very light opens utg. I don't know your whole range but I do know it includes some nonsense.

EB

[Municipal Hare]

Sweet first post.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Your memory sucks miles. The turn was double hearted and double clubbed. At least you hit the top two cards correctly.

[/ QUOTE ]
to be honest i don't think it matters much what the low card is, and i didn't remember if the turn brought another fd, but again i don't think it matters much. i just guessed that it didn't because that's the right guess.

[ QUOTE ]
And no, you aren't that tight up front. You've shown down some very light opens utg. I don't know your whole range but I do know it includes some nonsense.

EB

[/ QUOTE ]
i looked at my last 60k 3/6 hands - you're right. it's not 17/17, it's 19/19.

this is top 19% from pokerstove:

66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+

but i think i have just run well w/ cards over the 5k hands i have utg, because i don't usually raise K9s/Q9s/J9s, KJo/KTo, QJo/QTo, and i don't think i raise enough random stuff like 86s to overcome that to make it 19%. so yeah i think i do open about 17% up front.

what did you have, anyway

[Zach6668]

I usually just c/c this turn.

I tend to c/c the river as well. I'm intrigued by the idea of a donkbet though.

I would never c/f here. You guys say these guys aren't betting worse than AT, but I disagree, KQ, KK, etc may even try to v-town this thinking an aggressive villain like Miles would have put in another bet with the ace somewhere. In reality, most villains aren't quite as perceptive as this, though.

After reading the thread, and seeing it was engine_block, I doubt he would bet less on the river. Meh.

Bet/fold is probably the best river line. Hands like JJ, KK will often call to get to showdown, and obv we're never raised by a better hand.

In theory, I think my problem with this line is that a really perceptive player could start bluff raising rivers with less simply due to line recognition. This almost certainly doesn't happen much at 3/6 on AP though, so I wouldn't worry about it in practice. I find that most river bluff raises, at least the ones I call (and I'm a showdown whore), tend to be from the worst players at the table.