standard vs. flop checkbehind

[sebastien]

wtf about c/c c/c turn and river with quad??
i would bet the turn.Vilain check flop is really weird but i ve quad i don't understand why check turn??

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I woulda lost more I think, the same people who ck AA here ck AK, i probably would have cr'd the turn and called down I suppose or called to cr the river vs KK QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I were going to look at this mathematically, where would I do my baysean probabilities, on the flop or the turn?

i.e. Let's say that I said that he would play AK/AQ like this like 60% of the time if he was the type of player to play AA in this manner.

Therefore flop:

AK/AQ = 24 hands, 60% = 14.4 hands.
AA = 3 hands.

4.8:1 he has AK/AQ over AA.

----

Turn:

AK/AQ = 16 hands = 9.6 hands
AA = 1 hand.

9.6:1 in favour of AK/AQ.

----------------

Which is it?

I think that we're looking at the turn (9.6:1 in favour of the big ace) rather than the flop, even though most of our "eureka info" came on the flop.

I'm tired, so... I'm having a tough time with this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Anyways, which of these math formulas is right, given my assumption? 9.6:1?

--Dave.

edit: last time someone did this to me I had 66 on J642 and I bet/called the turn instead of c/c'ed it (vs jj).

edit: fwiw I see this line it seems much more often out of AA than AK, just because AK has so many more hands that you will pay off with than AA.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Which is it?

I think that we're looking at the turn (9.6:1 in favour of the big ace) rather than the flop, even though most of our "eureka info" came on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you would use the information you got on the turn when doing the weighted combo analysis.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Which is it?

I think that we're looking at the turn (9.6:1 in favour of the big ace) rather than the flop, even though most of our "eureka info" came on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you would use the information you got on the turn when doing the weighted combo analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

LDO... figured. Thanks bro.

edit: If I didn't do that, and the river was an ace, my formula would still show a chance of villain holding AA. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Nick C]

Yeah, Villain might sometimes play AK this way (I've seen it once that I remember), but I don't really care. I'm too busy reveling in how badly Villain got owned in this hand. I mean, it sucks to lose to a one-outer, but the simple calldown sure is a sweet way to punish the "tricky" flop check behind.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
hahahahahaha

would this have qualified for jackpot even? some sites it's quad 8s or better getting beaten


[/ QUOTE ]
at AP it's AAAKK or better getting beaten, but i think more than 2 people have to see the flop. anyway it wasn't at a jackpot table because i try not to play those/.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay but why does he muck it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he didn't have AA and mylesdyson edited the hand history.

Guy.

[imitation]

heheh