Rugby: Heineken Cup and European Challenge Cup

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This weekend is the start of the HEC and ECC, rugby's versions of Champions League and UEFA Cup. Lines aren't up on too many sites yet, but today/tonight we have Montpellier vs. Sale Sharks in the ECC. Montpellier is +25.5 and while French teams tend to do poorly in the ECC, particularly away, this is a vastly underrated Montpellier side with a lot of young talent such as Francois Trinh-Duc at flyhalf and Fulgence Ouedraogo at flanker. Normally the French sides underperform because they name understrength sides but this is a full-strength Montpellier side who just beat Perpignan and played well at Clermont. Unfortunately, the lines at SIA for this match are -120, but this is still a +EV bet.

Montpellier +25.5 at Sale
Risk 1.2u to win 1u

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Final: Sale 49, Montpellier 6

0-1, -1.2u

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Gloucester -4.5 (-115) at Ulster
1.15u to win 1u

As in all sports, it's usually not great to take the road favorite, but Gloucester simply has too much talent and depth off the bench here.

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Final: Gloucester 32, Ulster 14

1-1, -0.2u

Gloucester looked really good in the first half as they got out to a 27-0 lead before sitting on the lead in the second half. Having a look at some of tomorrow's lines now.

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London Irish -21.5 (-120) vs. Treviso
Risk 3.6u to win 3u

Treviso is currently 4th in the Italian Super 10, which is far below the standard of the English, French and Celtic leagues. The match is at London Irish and they have a dangerous backline as well as a solid forward pack. Treviso performs poorly away from home and this won't be any different.

[hedgie43]

Adding a few more. Unfortunately I arbed out all of my funds on the Greek and haven't bothered moving money back there since the end of the Rugby World Cup. I'm left with SIA and Bodog with their [censored] -120 and -115 lines. Here are the rest for today:

Toulouse -8.5 (-120) at Edinburgh
1.2u to win 1u
While Toulouse is playing away, they have an excellent team particularly in the back row. As well, Edinburgh has a smaller than normal HFA because they get crowds of between 2-4k in a 68k seat stadium. Should be pretty similar to the Ulster-Gloucester game, minus Ulster's HFA.

Ospreys -14.5 (-120) vs. Bourgoin
1.2u to win 1u
Ospreys have an improved lineup and are playing at home at the Liberty Stadium. Bourgoin's track record is awful away from home, particularly in the HEC. They have also struggled against Dax and Auch, the newly promoted teams in the Top 14.

Leinster +2.5 (-115) vs. Leicester
0.575u to win .5u
Leicester is the better team on a neutral field but the RDS should give Leinster a good edge. With solid forwards and brilliant backs, Leinster has what it takes to carve up the Leicester backline.

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Toulouse wins 19-15 but fails to cover, London Irish wins 42-9 and Leinster wins 22-9. Ospreys up 16-6 after 40 minutes.

3-2, +2.1u

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Ospreys win 22-15 and fail to cover. What a waste of talent.

3-3, +0.9u

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Back at the Greek now, which brings me to this line:

Cardiff -12 vs. Bristol
1.1u to win 1u

Bristol has a big HFA but is not so great on the road. As well, they lack depth and are focusing on the Premiership rather than the HEC. This is somewhat of a second string team and they should get blown out by the Magners League leaders in Cardiff. Missing from the starting lineup for Bristol are stars Neil Brew, David Lemi and Dan Ward-Smith.

[hedgie43]

Cardiff 34, Bristol 16

4-3, +1.9u