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Old 11-05-2007, 07:11 AM
Josem Josem is offline
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Location: Victoria, Australia
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Default Re: World Population Growth

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You do realize that you actually have to do a little bit more research than looking at a line and extrapolating it out 60 years, right? Besides the question of whether we will be able to physically provide this power, you missed my point which is that doing so is unlikely to be environmentally sustainable.

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Human history is virtually guided by increasing energy use - new technologies and new energy sources. I think it is a safe bet to wager that future human energy consumption will be higher than today's levels - 150 years ago, there were no electricity power stations.

The idea of nuclear fission to power computers would have been incomprehensible. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that in the future, human knowledge will develop.


I did miss your point about environmental sustainability. Environmental sustainability simply wasn't an issue in the development of previous energy technologies, and now that it is, I assume that'll be navigated (which'll slow the acceleration of raw energy, I assume, but there's no reason that future developments won't occur).


Apart from anything else, even the climate change alarmists claim that oceans will rise by 55cm (or so) in the next hundred years ago if nothing is done. Oceans rose by 25cm in the last century, and I don't think that was the greatest tragedy for human-kind in the 20th century.

While the environment is obviously an important issue, let's keep these things in perspective. The number of people dying - or forecast to die - from climate change is entirely insignificant compared to the number of people dying from poverty/starvation/etc.

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How much power do you really think wind and hydro will provide?

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I suspect that some of the tidal-based hydro has some huge potential. There is some interesting stuff being done with this off the north-west coast of Australia. That's just one potential future paradigm shift - taking advantage of energy sources that aren't on land.

Future nuclear power is another potential source - talk of fusion, sure, but even with fission, there's a heap of available fuel.

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You "not seeing" is likely a result of "not looking". There is only so much land and so many basic resources around. People seem to think that a good goal to aim for is to raise living standards in 3rd world nations to those of the Western world, without realizing that our ecological footprint is so high that such a goal is laughable.

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I suspect that the amount of food produced in Western nations, per resources used, is higher than in developing nations.

That is, if you put Western farming techniques and technologies in developing nations of starvation/poverty, I think the Westerners could produce significantly more food than they are currently producing.

I imagine that someone can look into this to prove/disprove my suspicion.


edit: subsequent to making this post, i read this article by a guy much smarter than me which makes the points that i have made, but makes them better and more eloquently
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  #72  
Old 11-05-2007, 07:45 AM
xorbie xorbie is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Default Re: World Population Growth

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Human history is virtually guided by increasing energy use - new technologies and new energy sources. I think it is a safe bet to wager that future human energy consumption will be higher than today's levels - 150 years ago, there were no electricity power stations.

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"Prediction is very hard, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra.

Wise man.


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I did miss your point about environmental sustainability. Environmental sustainability simply wasn't an issue in the development of previous energy technologies, and now that it is, I assume that'll be navigated (which'll slow the acceleration of raw energy, I assume, but there's no reason that future developments won't occur).

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You know what they say about assumptions...

There are many good things to be said about humanity, but our ability for collective for-sight and self-control aren't really on the list.

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Apart from anything else, even the climate change alarmists claim that oceans will rise by 55cm (or so) in the next hundred years ago if nothing is done. Oceans rose by 25cm in the last century, and I don't think that was the greatest tragedy for human-kind in the 20th century.

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It's not as though a rise in sea level is the only effect. If you're going to use terminology like "global warming alarmists", you should at least accept that these alarmists are, surprisingly enough, saying pretty alarming things.

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While the environment is obviously an important issue, let's keep these things in perspective. The number of people dying - or forecast to die - from climate change is entirely insignificant compared to the number of people dying from poverty/starvation/etc.

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I'm not really concerned with the number of people dying directly from global warming so much as I am about the general sustainability of most of the human race.

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I suspect that the amount of food produced in Western nations, per resources used, is higher than in developing nations.

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This is so dependent on what food and resources you are talking about that it is ridiculous to even try to evaluate the statement you made. If we compare, say, corn to corn, you are probably right.

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That is, if you put Western farming techniques and technologies in developing nations of starvation/poverty, I think the Westerners could produce significantly more food than they are currently producing.

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Again, probably true.

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I imagine that someone can look into this to prove/disprove my suspicion.

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More importantly, you should re-read my post. I didn't say anything about food. I'm talking about iPods and heated homes and cars and AC and hairspray and mountains of garbage.

People who make very little/no money are what fuel a substantial portion of our economy and make our standard of living so high. Those are just the economic facts of the situation.
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