Trip Aces on Flop v Tough Opponent

[BigDan9]

Villain is 23/6/2.85 over 17,685 hands. A tough, if sometimes overly aggressive, opponent who I've played a lot with. He knows me to be tighter and a little less aggressive.

Pacific Poker No Limit Hold'Em, $2/$4 (7 handed).

SB ($212)
BB ($150)
UTG ($216)
UTG+1 ($518)
Villain ($390)
Hero ($413)
Button ($212)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG calls, 1 fold, Villain calls, Hero raises to $18, 4 folds.

Flop: ($57) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $45, Villain raises to £122, Hero calls.

Turn:($300) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks. Hero??

My one fairly confident read was that Villain didn't have AK-AJ as, 95% of the time, he would raise (or even re-raise) with those hands pre-flop in late position.

[KeanuReaver]

damn he changed the currency with that raise
he's good

[ogdundar]

If he is as aggressive as you say, I think you should induce a riverbet here as I don't think you will get any value from betting the turn. Check behind and call any riverbet.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
damn he changed the currency with that raise
he's good

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, don't forget to factor in exchange rates and fees on the flop. The dollar is pretty damn weak so it' probably a fold.

[Nick Royale]

I bet the turn. Don't think he's bluffing the river if we check enough to give him a free card on the turn.

[BigDan9]

I definitely felt there was a big risk of giving him a free card on the turn. Villain would definitely play suited connectors hands, even for a raise pre-flop and OOP.

If I bet the turn, though, how much do I bet?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely felt there was a big risk of giving him a free card on the turn. Villain would definitely play suited connectors hands, even for a raise pre-flop and OOP.

If I bet the turn, though, how much do I bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Villain has 240 left right? It's pretty obv what you have either way and you won't be able to give him room for a bluff so I just shove.

[BigDan9]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is as aggressive as you say, I think you should induce a riverbet here as I don't think you will get any value from betting the turn. Check behind and call any riverbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

But isn't a free card here a bad thing? If I bet the turn, I'm not looking for value but hoping to either the win pot before the river or at least make Villain pay to a draw. If that's what he's on...

[ogdundar]

If it's a bad thing is just a math problem. It seems you are pretty certain his range is dominated by flushdraws, so compute the EV of giving him a free card, assuming you win if a non diamond hits the river and lose with a diamond. Compare this to taking the pot down right now.

I don't have time to do it but its a good exercise.

[Praetor]

[ QUOTE ]
damn he changed the currency with that raise
he's good

[/ QUOTE ]

lol