$200: Checking turned nuts vs regular on 2 streets after cbetting

[Scotty_12]

Villian is a solid winning player playing very tag early. He definitely makes his living from sngs and we play dozens of games together daily. He should know I am not making it 260 OOP over 3 limpers without a big hand, and I would also be suprised if he was limp/calling button pf with a big hand. It would certainly be news to me if he was limping KK or AA pf, my range for him was TT, AJs or AQo after he calls the flop. I dont see any way he can have a diamond flush smoothcalling on the flop, as I dont put a hand like 89d anywhere near his range. He might limp it pf after limpers, but I doubt he calls a raise, and I doubt he just flats the flop. Ax Jd is a possibility, but I think he would bet turn or river here with it. My plan was to check smooth turn/lead river or checkraise river if he checked behind on the turn. I dont think any worse hands call if I lead, and I didnt mind checking the river to induce a bluff. I dont see him as the type to bluff spew in level 1, but you never know. I also saw a river CR as having metagame potential - it may prevent him bluffing or vbetting me thin in the future if he remembers a CRAI here. I also dont mind him checking behind so I can see what hes limp calling me with lvl1 pf and then f latting me with on the flop. What do yous guys think? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t20/t40
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2560
UTG+1: t2020
UTG+2: t2820
MP1: t2000
MP2: t1980
MP3: t860
CO: t1860
Button: t1940
Hero: t1960
BB: t2000

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t40 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t60)</font>, 3 folds, MP3 calls t40 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t100)</font>, CO folds, Button calls t40 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t140)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t260</font>, 3 folds, Button calls t220 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t400)</font>.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t640, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t240</font>, Button calls t240 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t880)</font>.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1120, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t1120, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Results:
Final pot: t1120

[Q..]

I'd bet 300 on river, need to give him a chance to make mistake, you let him play perfectly. From your description and hes flop call he probably has set of tens and would have to call that.

[RexWoo]

As you said, I think AQ, TT and sometime AJd (but limp / calling with it looks weak) are a big part of his flop calling range.
He won't bet TT / AQ but he will probably call a bet with TT and AJd on the turn so I think betting the turn is better than checking but I can understand that you want to see his cards.

[AMT]

i can understand vs a thinking regular you may only get one street of value in a spot like this, but checking two streets with the nuts is just not good.

[tigerite]

You won't get him to call very much on the river anyway, not with 4 diamonds out, but yes, you should bet the river here.

[RexWoo]

zomg tigerite !

[darinvg]

We need to bet turn or river. What did he have? Limp calling 260 doesn't look good.

[Little John]

i cant ever see villian having TT here. if the puts your opening raise range from BB as JJ+ AK, then here are combinations of your hand after the flop:

AA = 3
KK = 6
QQ = 6
JJ = 6
AK = 12

so only 11% of the time would you show up with AA. so not pushing/raising the flop with TT would be pretty bad.

so the only hands i can see him playing this way are AQ AJ, possibly suited. i think he will be pretty happy to check behind and get to showdown. i would bet the river smallish, i think he will pay you.

[Q..]

Why would he shove/raise flop with set of tens? he can call, we don't have to have a diamond, and diamond doesn't have to fall on turn, so calling can't be bad for him. He doesn't play perfect as we can see from his preflop call anyway.

[sean457j]

I don't play any where near this buyin level, but here's what I think.

When ever I see four cards of the same suit on the board, unless I have the nuts or near nuts, I am desperate to check it down. The only bet I can see him making is with the Jd, and as you say he probably would have bet that on the turn. If you bet the river - which leads to a fold - then in the future you can make the same play again when you don't hit anything - knowing that a small river bet on a four suited board is probably going to cause the other player to fold (after he checks a possible completed flush). You may be able to start defining what value bets he will call/fold on the river against you, and with what type of hands.