100nl- tripple barrel ok?

traz · #1 09-10-2007, 07:11 PM

Villain is 24/11/3.7 over 700 datamined hands. He had about 60 remaining on the river.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $99.00
BB: $113.80
UTG: $30.65
Hero (CO): $146.55
BTN: $96.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $4.00, BTN calls $4.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $7.00, BTN calls $7.00

Turn: ($23.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $18.00, BTN calls $18.00

River: ($59.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets all-in for $117.55

Speedlimits · #2 09-10-2007, 07:17 PM

As you can see from my other posts I am pretty bad at recognizing good spots to triple barrel. I don't think this is a good spot though.

13_Xerxes · #3 09-10-2007, 07:30 PM

Good, he will fold Ac9c and 7c8c

rEvo · #4 09-10-2007, 08:39 PM

If we narrow villains preflop range to pps & scs here most of the time I don't think it's a nice spot to tripple barrel. I expect rnd TAG Villain to raise the flop with his draws (pair+fd or gs+fd is e.g. very likely on this flop) + sets.

The hands which usually call us on the flop are e.g. pure float attempts, or hands like JT/T9, maybe QT/T8 once in a while.

The 2nd barrel is great imo, he'll fold most tens + float attempts usually. Calling AGAIN seems like a weird line for villain. Hands like JT or sets would raise us, draws should fold etc. ...

Vs a TAG w/o history I'd c/f the river. The range I put him on is

a) a slowplayed 22/66/JT, or
b) a hand which he originally floated with and catched a J on the turn, like e.g. QJ or AJ.

The only hands we fold out are tens that had us on a dblbarrel somehow and tried to get to the showdown cheaply or draws (which he both won't call on flop+river often).

traz · #5 09-10-2007, 10:13 PM

I couldn't see this guy possibly holding anything that could stand a river push. I figured just about everything that would call here would raise the turn.

I also figure once the river came, he'd check behind almost always, and showup with 1 pair, so when I combined both of these thoughts a shove was almost instinctive.

If you dislike the 3rd barrel, what do you think is in villain's range that will call a pot sized bet on the river? rEvo, you say that a floated J may be a large part of his range...do you think QJ calls the river bet? My thoughts were that QJ would fold.

rEvo · #6 09-11-2007, 01:24 AM

Hmmm... The main reason why I dislike it is cause a really weird line from a regular rings of warning bells in my head. Cause a) he decided to be tricky with a strong hand (oh noes!) or b) he did something leaky which we should exploit. Vs an "unknown reg", like one I only have mined hands of I tend to more weakish play w/o any kind of history.

We have absolutely NO idea what's going on in his brain, e.g. if he's capable of folding a Jack here.

I LOVE this line vs a usually solid, well-playing regular who knows I'm solid as well. Then I'd say he has like 80% of the time a J here which he'll fold to a push. And yes, I've seen many random-22/11-"TAG"s show up at SDs like this with like KJ or AJ (or KK (wtf?!)) ...

From experience I'd say that at LEAST around 20-30% of the average NL200 regs cant fold a jack here.

Kilillan · #7 09-11-2007, 01:26 AM

I would like it if her had more money on the river.

but I kinda like it.

Kilillan theorem, a good player can`t call 3 barrels with one pair. Depends on if you think he`s good or not

Unknown Soldier · #8 09-11-2007, 01:29 AM

this baord ran out nicely for it imo, well played op.

theplux · #9 09-11-2007, 02:08 AM

Just a question about this hand. Is this a standard 2nd barrel?

startrak · #10 09-11-2007, 02:21 AM

This should work alot.

[ QUOTE ]
Kilillan theorem, a good player can`t call 3 barrels with one pair. Depends on if you think he`s good or not

[/ QUOTE ]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($279.10)
UTG ($286.50)
Hero ($221.25)
CO ($194.95)
Button ($219.30)
SB ($203)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, CO calls $7, 3 folds.

Flop: ($17) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO raises to $31, Hero calls $19.

Turn: ($79) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $34, Hero calls $34.

River: ($147) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $100, Hero calls $100.

Final Pot: $347

Showdown:

Villain shows Ts Tc.
villain has Ts Tc Ks 6s 6d: two pair, tens and sixes.
Hero has Kh Th Ks 6s 6d: two pair, kings and sixes.