I hit it and get raised

[frenchpignouf]

Let be x the probability that we are ahead. If the MP call 2
20% of the time and 90% otherwise, in order to be break even with the 2 line, we need to have:

0.9x=(0.2+1)x-2(1-x)

x=87%, we are far from that so overcall seems better.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

Your math isnt right. If we get the MP to call the 3 bet 20% he puts in .4 not .2

No calculator but eyeballing that looks like about 80%.

[Heisenb3rg]

I think this is a call.

Not because I dont think we're ahead a large enough % of the time to 3-bet, but because I think CO is fairly strong (not flush strong) and based on your description will likely make a bad call for one bet, but not put in 2.

More money is to be made from overcalling.

Plus ur more likely to be capped when behind than ahead (bad players cant hand read and sometimes give too much action even with K high flush here)

[Robin Foolz]

i hate to get capped here after i 3 bet, but no really, because i come to find out 9h7h capped it.

guy, something to think about: thing is even if we include all the heart combos that beat us along with the rest, we're still statistically favorite. but it's very very close. and obviously once you discount stuff like 63h and such, we ought to lean towards overcalling (but i doubt it since "CO is just a very bad player, very loose preflop")

ninja edit