I hit it and get raised

[jba]

i still say call

you make the same if the river action is

call, mp calls
vs
3bet, mp folds, co calls

after mp checks the turn I don't think he's calling a 3bet very often at all. maybe he isn't calling co's raise very often though? I doubt he's even paying attn how is he going to fold for one bet closing the action? I'm not sure what we're gaining here.

[sharpie]

I'm with jba. It's not like we can give him every suited combo without discounting them, but he probably plays every Kx suited.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

[ QUOTE ]
call, mp calls
vs
3bet, mp folds, co calls

[/ QUOTE ]

Wah? So a call gets you the garenteed minimum but raising is garenteed to get at least that but has a chance for more?

If both lines net the same most of the time but one gets us a little more occasionally why are we taking the nit line?

Only hand we worried about if Khxh, but we know x isnt a broadway drasictally narowing his range. I'd pop this every time and expect to be called in both places. MP calls called a million bets with Q so far, I doubt he's folding now

[sharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call, mp calls
vs
3bet, mp folds, co calls

[/ QUOTE ]

Wah? So a call gets you the garenteed minimum but raising is garenteed to get at least that but has a chance for more?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling also looses the minimum when we're behind. Sometimes nothing is gained by 3 betting when we're ahead.

[ QUOTE ]

If both lines net the same most of the time but one gets us a little more occasionally why are we taking the nit line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we're not always ahead..

[ QUOTE ]

Only hand we worried about if Khxh, but we know x isnt a broadway drasictally narowing his range. I'd pop this every time and expect to be called in both places. MP calls called a million bets with Q so far, I doubt he's folding now

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's more likely to play weak Kxs than some of the lower raggy suited hands, but if OP had stats # he could get a better idea. Qx is almost never calling for 2 more bets unless he's braindead.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is just a very bad player

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Qx is almost never calling for 2 more bets unless he's braindead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasons for slowing down dont match the given discriptions


[ QUOTE ]
MP is a weirdo who coldcalls all the time, plays a ton of hands preflop

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he's more likely to play weak Kxs than some of the lower raggy suited hands

[/ QUOTE ]

[Guy McSucker]

I think the right river play here is not at all clear. I really just wanted to make sure that deciding the villain didn't have the nut flush because he checked the turn was sane.

As to river play:

If the guy in the middle would guarantee to overcall 100% then I think calling is best, but the flush in CO's hand is fantastically obvious so I am not sure he makes the call all the time.

If you threebet you most likely lose the guy in the middle but surely get a call from a worse flush in the CO; you could well get capped by a better flush, but that's not hugely likely given our read that CO does not have the nut flush.

I think the most likely outcome of threebetting is that you get the middle guy to fold and get called by the CO whether behind or in front. The most likely outcome of calling is that you get the overcall. A threebet just puts us at unnecessary risk for no gain IMO.

Anyone want to talk about the flop?

[kimchi]

I say call the river. This is an unusual hand, and I don't know what to make of that turn.

Looks like CO made his flush and MP has some form of a Q and didn't fancy that turn card. But anything's possible with these two.

If MP has a mediocre hand such as 2nd pair or even 2 pair, he'll proabably call the raise on the river, but not a re-raise from you.

If you're behind a bigger flush (maybe unlikely), you'll probably get raised again by CO.

The MP left to act on the river changes how I think you should act. Calling gets his overlay when you are ahead of CO, but raising makes you put more money in when you're behind, but you win the same when you're ahead (assuming MP folds to a river re-raise).

As for the turn, you picked up an even bigger draw and I say bet-out. If you're raised it's not so bad. I doubt CO is folding his possible flush draw. Betting out may fold a pair of queens from MP and be left with 2 overcards to CO's small flush draw.

[TheHip41]

anyone saying a fish can't have the nuts on the river hasn't played online enough.

I've seen some wtf turn checks in my life. So yes, A-x hearts is discounted, but it will show up sometimes.

I'm torn here, because the guy in the middle is going to call 1 more so often, and if we three bet, he can't have a hand that can call 3.

And if you 3bet, and the guy folds, and the fish caps, you can't even really call the cap.

At the table I'd just call the raise, but I'm not sure if that's correct. I think this spot is really close either way.

[jba]

IMO there's really nothing to talk about re: the flop, really the only interesting street is the river. a case can be made for folding pf but whatever, depends on the table.

[jstill]

id fold pre at the table u described but whatever id open QJs and probably KJo even though I know the latters a long run loser.

on the river Id call, I think the last guy to act can definitely ck through TP on the turn after this flop action (even if he wasnt a fish) and the K hi flush is certainly possible.

Its not so much that I think we re beat though its more of what the EV of the two lines will be. Although even though COs bad we re not far ahead of his river raising range which is probably only flushes (and the lower portion of the range should be discounted, probably more than the nut portion just due to his cold calling a utg raise preflop (the utg part probably isnt important as I doubt his cold calling range changes much due to where its opened from ie hes not positionally aware) but hed fold some trash suited hands no matter how bad he is)

if we 3bet we generally risk 3 more bets to win 2 as the guy in the middle will fold almost all the time and the river raiser will cap when we re beat and call when we re ahead (typically)

whereas if we call we generally get the overcall and win 2 bets risking only 1. The guy in the middle who supposedly is bad will call closing the action for one bet sosososo often, probably over 90% of the time. Even good playres dont fold TPGK here which should be a no brainer even though the pots big, so I think that makes the decision pretty clear towards calling being a better EV line here than 3 betting?